Former President Trump is leading in a crucial battleground state for the 2024 presidential election, as indicated by a recent AARP poll. The survey, released on Tuesday, shows Trump with a 3-percentage point advantage over President Biden in Nevada. Among likely voters in the Silver State, 48% favor Trump, while 45% would vote for Biden if the election were held today.
When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included in the poll, Trump’s lead extends to a more comfortable 7 points. However, Kennedy has not qualified for the Nevada ballot, and state Democrats have filed a lawsuit challenging his eligibility. Trump’s lead is particularly strong among voters over 50, with 53% favoring the presumptive Republican nominee compared to 41% for Biden. On the bright side for Biden, he maintains a lead among Hispanic voters in that age group, with 51% supporting him over Trump’s 41%.
Maria Moore, AARP Nevada state director, emphasized the significance of the Hispanic vote in Nevada, where Hispanics make up 22% of the eligible voter population. Nevada is a closely watched state that could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the presidential election. While the state has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, Trump’s lead in the recent poll indicates a potential shift.
A Fox News survey released earlier this month showed Biden trailing Trump by 5 points, fueling Republican optimism about flipping the state. Governor Joe Lombardo of Nevada recently expressed dissatisfaction with Biden’s economic policies in a New York Times guest essay, suggesting that voters in Nevada are losing confidence in the current administration’s ability to address issues like inflation and housing costs.
The AARP poll also touched on Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, where incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, is facing a challenge from Republican Sam Brown. Rosen is leading Brown 47% to 42%, with strong support from Hispanic voters contributing to her advantage.
According to the poll, the top concerns for Nevada voters include the economy, rising food prices, immigration, and border security. Split-ticket voters, who may support candidates from different parties for various offices, are expected to play a crucial role in the upcoming election. This trend suggests that there are more undecided voters this year compared to previous elections.
The AARP survey, conducted in partnership between Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research, interviewed 1,368 likely voters between June 12 and 18. The margin of error for the poll is 4%. As the election approaches, the dynamics in Nevada could have far-reaching implications for the national political landscape.