Vote-by-mail data in three key states shows the edge Democrats enjoyed in 2020 has plummeted, something one expert said is a great sign for Republicans and former President Donald Trump.
“It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Jimmy Keady, the founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital. The comments come as the Democratic edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, according to data by Decision Desk HQ, signaling a shift in voter habits that have defined the last two elections.
According to the data, the Democratic lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina, and over 35% in Pennsylvania. This shift in early voting trends could have significant implications for the upcoming election.
### The Impact on Campaign Strategies
Getting voters out to early in-person voting or to vote by mail can free up resources for campaigns, Keady said, allowing them to focus their attention on lower propensity voters who often play a big role in deciding elections.
“I’m sure voters complain all the time about text messages, getting mail, or robocalls to go vote,” Keady said. “Campaigns are now sophisticated enough that once you go vote, those stop… once a voter goes to vote and those stop, that allows resource allocation from that voter to another voter.”
This strategic shift in campaign tactics could play a crucial role in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, both of which are expected to once again be swing states with razor-tight margins. The ground game to turn out voters on each side could be the deciding factor in the election.
### The Current Political Landscape
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a lead of less than a point in Pennsylvania, while Trump holds a similarly sized lead in North Carolina, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. This means that the efforts to mobilize voters through early voting could tip the scales in favor of either party.
The Democratic advantage in mail-in and early voting very well might have been the difference in the 2020 election, but Keady sees shifting momentum for the GOP on that front in 2024. The increasing turnout and acceptance of early voting among Republican voters could level the playing field against the Democrats.
“It definitely signals that there’s turnout, but also that the base has adopted being able to accept that early voting is a proper and mostly secure way to vote,” Keady said.
### The Importance of Early Voting for Republicans
As Republicans aim to compete with Democrats in the realm of early voting, Keady emphasized the need for the party to encourage their base to participate in early voting and mail-in balloting. This shift towards embracing early voting methods could prove to be a game-changer in future elections.
“As Republicans, we have to start getting the base to early vote, to do mail-in ballots, to do these things that we know are safe and secure, to get people out to the polls,” Keady noted. “The Democrats have done this really well for years.”
The evolving landscape of early voting and mail-in balloting presents both challenges and opportunities for political campaigns. By adapting to these changing voter habits, parties can better position themselves to mobilize their supporters and secure victories in key battleground states.
As the 2024 election approaches, the impact of early voting trends on the outcome becomes increasingly significant. By leveraging data-driven strategies and focusing on mobilizing their base through early voting initiatives, political parties can enhance their chances of success in a highly competitive electoral environment.
In conclusion, the shifting dynamics of early voting data in key states highlight the evolving strategies and tactics employed by political campaigns. The rise of early voting among Republican voters signals a potential shift in the electoral landscape, with implications for the upcoming election. By adapting to these changes and capitalizing on the opportunities presented by early voting trends, parties can position themselves for success in a closely contested political environment.