On Thursday, the U.S. accused Russia of a plot to invent an attack by Ukrainian forces. Russia could then use this pretext to launch military action against its neighbor.
John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesperson, said that the plan included the production of a graphic propaganda film that would show explosions and use corpses as well as actors portraying grieving mourners.
The U.S. has not provided any supporting information.
In intelligence declassified and shared with Ukrainian officials, European allies, and others in recent days, the plan for a fake attack against Russian territory or Russian-speaking persons was described. This was the latest example of the Biden administration disclosing intelligence findings as an attempt to stop Russian disinformation attempts and foil what it claims is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s effort to set the stage for military action. Officials from the administration want to clarify that Russia has always tried to invade the United States.
The White House claims that U.S. intelligence has shown Russia launched a malicious social media disinformation campaign against Ukraine. It has also dispatched explosives-trained operatives to commit acts of sabotage against Russia’s proxy forces. Britain revealed intelligence that showed Russia plotting to establish a pro-Russian puppet government.
Kirby stated that “we’ve seen such types of Russian activity in the past” and that it was important to report it when possible.
The administration repeatedly refused to provide evidence supporting its intelligence findings. Ned Price, spokesperson for the State Department, said that Thursday’s statement was necessary to ensure security and protection of sensitive sources as well as intelligence gathering methods.
He said that “we only declassify information when we are confident in it.”
On Thursday, Recep Tayyip Erdan, Turkish President, offered mediation to Russia and Ukraine. NATO warned that Moscow’s military buildup is continuing, with more troops and equipment being deployed to Belarus than ever in the past 30 years.
Erdogan, who maintains close, but sometimes challenging, ties to Putin, stated that Turkey was ready to do its part to end the crisis between the two friendly countries that are its neighbours in the Black Sea.
After three hours of discussions with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Erdogan stated that he had stressed the fact that we would love to host a summit meeting at either a leadership or technical level. “We don’t want to fuel the flames, but we do so with the logical goal of reducing tensions.”
Russia has increased its presence near Ukraine’s eastern and northern borders by more than 100,000 troops. This raises concerns that Moscow could invade again as it did in 2014. The uncertainty and troop presence have caused anxiety among Ukrainians and damaged the country’s economy. Russian officials deny plans for an invasion.
Zelenskyy accepted Erdogan’s invitation and thanked him “firmly and consistently” for his support.
Turkey is now in an awkward situation due to the crisis. It must balance its relationship with Ukraine and its relations with Moscow. Ankara, with its historical ties to Ukraine as well as ethnic bonds with the Crimean Tatar community in Turkey, strongly opposed Russia’s 2014 annexation.
However, Turkey is reluctant to join any sanctions against Russia. The country’s economy is in crisis and it has been relying on tourists from Russia to generate tourism revenue. Russia is also a major supplier of natural gas.
According to the U.S., the new intelligence suggests that Russia would use Ukrainian military equipment, including a key weapon supplied in part by Turkey, a NATO member. This is to boost the credibility of a fake terrorist attack.
According to a senior official in the administration, Russia could use Bayraktar drones made from Turkish materials as part of this fake operation. Russia has expressed its disapproval at the drones being used in Ukraine against pro-Russian separatists in Donbas.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin spoke again on Thursday. This was their third meeting in less than a week. In a statement, the Kremlin stated that they had continued a “detailed dialog about the situation in Ukraine” and that Putin brought Macron’s attention “provocative statements or actions” from the Ukrainian leadership.
At NATO headquarters Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned of the possibility that Russian troops in Belarus could reach 30,000 with the support of special forces, fighter jets, Iskander long-range missiles, and S-400 ground-to-air defense systems.
“Over the past days, we have witnessed a significant movement by Russian military forces into Belarus. Stoltenberg stated that this was the largest Russian military deployment in Belarus since the Cold War.
Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, was in Minsk Thursday to check on preparations for major Russia/Belarus war games that are scheduled for February 10-20. Shoigu met Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian President. Lukashenko spoke out about the drills and stated that the goal was to “enforce the border with Ukraine”.
In the meantime, Ukraine’s defense ministry sought to project calm again, stating that the likelihood of an invasion was “low”. He welcomed the U.S. officials changing their use of the term “imminent” to describe the threat of a Russian attack.
Oleksii Reznikov stated that “the threat exists and the risks exist but they have been there since 2014, ever after Russia became an aggressor.” He also said that “there is no reason for panic, fear or flight.”
Stoltenberg reiterated his call for Russia’s “de-escalation” and repeated West warnings that any further Russian aggression would result in severe consequences and a high price.
NATO does not intend to send troops to Ukraine in the event of an invasion by Russia, but it has started to strengthen the defenses of its member countries, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The military alliance of 30 nations plans to increase its defenses in the Black Sea area near Bulgaria and Romania.
Helsinki: Leaders of Finland met with President Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, to discuss a letter Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had sent to several countries regarding the “indivisibility” of security in Europe.
Lavrov claims that NATO and the U.S. misunderstand the concept. This basically means that the security and stability of one European country are linked to each other’s security. He has asked for clarifications from the countries that have signed key security documents to address the issue.
Sanna Marin, the Finnish Prime Minister, stated that there was no “big information” in the letter, but that it warranted a response. Von der Leyen stated that the EU’s executive branch, the commission, will coordinate a reply, although Lavrov insists that only countries should respond.
