(Shanghai) Its world premiere on the far side of the Moon over the weekend recalled the great progress made in space by China, which hopes its private companies will rival Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
Certainly, the Asian giant’s start-ups remain far behind American behemoths like SpaceX, which on Thursday carried out the fourth test flight of its Starship megarocket – the largest in the world.
But the gap is narrowing, because China is now actively supporting its private sector, which allows it to strengthen its capacities, experts explain to AFP.
“Within five years, SpaceX could feel under pressure,” Chen Lan, specialist in the Chinese space program, told AFP.
“The current situation in the electric vehicle market could happen again,” he explains, referring to car manufacturer Tesla, another Elon Musk company, recently overtaken by its Chinese rival BYD in terms of sales.
According to Chen Lan, the great “lion” SpaceX could soon, like Tesla in the automobile industry, have to face the “wolf pack” of private Chinese companies.
China opened its space sector to private capital in late 2014. Since then, hundreds of companies have stepped into the breach.
The “Ceres-1” launcher from the Galactic Energy group, for example, once again sent three satellites into orbit on Thursday – one of dozens of launches planned in the country this year.
“China’s commercial space sector is impressive in size and depth,” says Blaine Curcio, founder of Orbital Gateway Consulting.
If SpaceX remains “well ahead” of the main Chinese private sector leaders, “China is probably ahead” among more secondary companies, he notes.
A major space country, China has a space station and has landed machines on the Moon and Mars, where it plans to send manned missions by 2030 and 2033 respectively.
The Asian giant also succeeded on Sunday, in a world first, in placing samples of the far side of the Moon in lunar orbit – before their scheduled return to Earth at the end of June.
The Chinese private sector, for the moment, is mainly specialized in placing satellites in orbit.
Together, its companies have considerable launch capacity, essential for enabling state projects to establish megaconstellations, state broadcaster CCTV reported in April.
China is developing two such networks: Guowang and G60 Starlink, which are expected to have some 13,000 and 12,000 satellites, respectively.
The Chinese satellites currently in orbit, however, number in the hundreds rather than the thousands.
However, the speed of deployment is crucial, according to CCTV, because Chinese projects face competition from other countries and limitations relating to the number of spacecraft in orbit and the frequencies available.
SpaceX is set up as a quasi-model to be followed by CCTV. Its Falcon 9 rockets now serve NASA and its Starlink constellation now covers dozens of countries.
Space is the subject of a bitter rivalry between Washington and Beijing, each accusing the other of wanting to hide military objectives.
A former head of the US Space Command recently declared that the next decade would be “the most crucial” in history when it comes to competition with China in space.
“We cannot afford to lose,” he stressed.
There are “close ties” in China between the state and private companies, says Blaine Curcio, because several were founded by former employees of public groups or researchers from government institutes.
The relationship has not always been simple, “because the State is reluctant to abandon its monopoly” and the scope of action of private companies has limits, he emphasizes.
But in December, during a meeting of senior Chinese leaders, they called for “cultivating” the private space sector, described as “strategic”.
A total of 26 launches were carried out by commercial companies in China in 2023, according to state media.
Among them was that of Zhuque-2, designed by the private company LandSpace and the first rocket in the world to reach orbit with liquid methane engines – a promising technology allowing in particular to reduce costs.
“The next big step” for Chinese private companies “will be the design of a Falcon 9 type rocket (like SpaceX) and mastering the technique of reusing the first stage” of the launcher, notes Chen Lan.
According to him, several companies should achieve this this year.
The private sector is expected to carry out around 30 of the approximately 100 launches planned in China in 2024.
For comparison, SpaceX carried out 98 of 109 American launches last year, according to astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, which underlines American superiority for the moment in this sector.