The last politician in Latin America to be legally invested with a similar level of power as Claudia Sheinbaum was last weekend was Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. He transformed the world’s most oil-rich country into his socialist state. The result is well known: eight million refugees – a quarter of the population – violence, hunger and a lack of fuel. Today, Venezuela is a dictatorship under Chavez’s successor Nicolas Maduro.
Left-wing populist Sheinbaum, 61, can now rely on a similar power base in Mexico as the young Chavez once did. Clear majorities in the chambers should also make structural constitutional reforms possible. The young but already all-dominant left-wing populist Morena party will benefit from this in particular.
This has the potential to cause conflict, for example in relations with the USA: Sheinbaum promised to respect the “sovereignty” of other states. This refers primarily to the left-wing autocracies in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. This could become a problem, especially if Donald Trump is elected in November.
Quite a few voices in the USA are already demanding that Latin America should solve the migration problem itself if it supports the left-wing dictatorships. Trump had already brought Sheinbaum’s predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador into line with punitive tariffs. Now Joe Biden is also starting to tighten the reins in the election campaign and tighten border policy.
Sheinbaum will not take office until October 1st. Every word she says on the issue of migration will be carefully considered in the final phase of the American election campaign. Rarely is a Mexican inauguration awaited with such excitement in the USA. Sheinbaum has an opportunity to position himself beforehand: elections will take place in Venezuela on July 28th.
Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzales is clearly leading the polls. The regime in Caracas has since disinvited the EU observer commission, and only a fraction of the millions of Venezuelans in exile have been allowed to attend. The only thing that can currently prevent Maduro from manipulating the election is the democratic left in Latin America, by taking a clear stance in favor of basic democratic rights.
This particularly affects Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro, Brazil’s President Lula da Silva and Mexico’s future President Claudia Sheinbaum. If they do not do this, the mass exodus from Venezuela will continue. And sooner or later, this will probably catch up with Sheinbaum politically.