(Radisson, Quebec) In February, the United States did what it had not done in a long time: it exported more electricity to Canada than it imported. Then, in March, U.S. electricity exports to Canada increased again, to a level not seen since at least 2010.
The increase in northward electricity flows is worrying for North America: energy demand is increasing everywhere, but electricity production – in Canada, from giant hydroelectric dams – and the capacity of the route to demand are put to the test.
These hydroelectric plants have recently had to reduce production due to less rain and snow; a temporary situation, many experts say. But some worry: Climate change, to which the 2023 wildfires are blamed, could reduce the reliability of forecast models for rainfall and snowfall.
“You have to be humble in the face of extreme weather,” says Chris O’Riley, CEO of BC Hydro, which operates British Columbia’s hydroelectric dams. “Some years there is more water, others less. During lows, like right now, it’s normal to import, and we expect that to be the case again this year. »
Canada’s abundant hydropower has been key to this trade, providing affordable renewable energy to California, Oregon, Washington, New York, and New England.
But this balance is threatened. In many states, energy demand increases sharply in both summer and winter. According to some experts, U.S. winter demand will exceed summer demand by 2050.
At the same time, networks are increasingly dependent on intermittent energy sources such as sun and wind. Large hydroelectric plants in California – notably the Hoover Dam – and Canada must now deal with falling water levels.
“We’re experiencing real weather changes and their impact on hydroelectric generation is being revealed in real time, virtually across North America,” says Robert McCullough of McCullough Research in Portland, Ore., which advises the companies’ corporate clients. electricity companies since the 1980s.
In addition, individuals and businesses are adopting heat pumps as well as electric cars and industrial equipment, turning away from fossil fuels. This boosts electricity demand, as does the proliferation of data centers.
The Biden administration and some states are working to build new U.S. power lines. But the United States should also add lines to Canada, experts suggest. Thus, Californian solar parks could supply Canada when its dams are short of water and Canada could send more electricity south when water levels are high.
“Most models show that a more interconnected grid is a better grid,” notes Shelley Welton, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who co-signed a recent report on the reliability of power grids. “In my opinion, interconnection on a North American scale is an asset. You have to plan for various scenarios and plan for the long term. »
Surrounded by pine and spruce trees in Northern Quebec, the Robert-Bourassa hydroelectric power station embodies the promises and challenges of renewable energy production.
This power plant and its little sister La Grande-2-A, built by Hydro-Québec on the Grande Rivière, can produce more electricity than the largest power plant in the United States, the Grand Coulee Dam, on the Columbia River. , in Washington state.
This James Bay complex allowed Hydro-Québec to become one of the major suppliers in New York State and New England. However, a lower than normal amount of snow has forced Hydro-Quebec and other Canadian utilities to import more American electricity in recent months.
“Conditions seem abnormally dry,” says Gilbert Bennett, president of Water Power Canada, a non-profit that represents the hydroelectric sector. “Annual variations are increasing. »
Hydro-Québec notes that there were similar periods in 2004 and 2014 and estimates that the current drought is coming to an end: its models predict an increase in precipitation of 6 to 8% in eastern Canada over the Next 25 years.
According to Serge Abergel, chief operating officer of the American subsidiary Hydro-Québec Energy Services, Canada’s recent use of American electricity has made it possible to save water at hydroelectric power stations. Modernizing and optimizing networks and adding renewable resources will allow the two countries to complement each other, he adds.
“The transition also creates opportunities, we optimize these resources,” underlines Mr. Abergel.
Hydro-Québec’s costs are low: its power stations were built and paid off a long time ago. Canadian hydroelectricity costs twice as much for individuals in Massachusetts as for residents of Quebec, according to an analysis by McCullough Research.
Hydro-Québec is building new power lines. It participates in the Champlain Hudson Power Express, which is expected to be completed in mid-2026. This US$6 billion transmission line, nearly 550 km long, will connect a substation in La Prairie to a converter station located in the Astoria district of New York. This line will be powerful enough to power more than a million New York homes.
“If we want a rapid transition, we need more transportation,” Abergel said. But “we don’t encourage anyone to find solutions, we do things piecemeal.”
Hydro-Québec will meet all of its obligations to New York and other states despite the drought, Abergel said, because it can conserve water by reducing the amount of electricity it produces at its plants and importing more energy from the United States. That way, the company will still have enough water to export energy during peak demand in New York and New England.
But some energy experts are less optimistic. Mr. McCullough says he fears that global warming will hit reservoirs hard and that it will no longer be possible to keep enough water in reserve to deal with a very long drought.
“Each episode like this makes us nervous,” he says.