Treasury Yields Surge Ahead of Fed Meeting and Inflation Data
U.S. Treasury yields saw an increase on Monday as investors eagerly anticipated the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the release of key inflation data later this week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by almost 4 basis points to reach 4.465%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was up by 1 basis point at 4.883%. It is important to note that yields and prices have an inverse relationship, with one basis point equivalent to 0.01%.
This week, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and policy guidance, along with the latest economic data, including inflation figures. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, with predictions suggesting that interest rates will remain unchanged post-meeting. Traders are currently estimating a 49% probability of a rate cut in September, as indicated by CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Market participants will closely monitor the guidance provided by the central bank during this week’s meeting and the subsequent press conference for insights into the future of interest rates and the overall economy. Additionally, the consumer and producer price index reports for May are expected to be released, offering further insights into the current inflation trends.
Policy makers have emphasized the importance of additional data to confirm a sustainable decline in inflation towards the 2% target before considering any interest rate adjustments. Many investors are hopeful for signs of a cooling economy in the upcoming economic reports, following the release of the May jobs report which showed a stronger-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls.
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