With this new coalition, South Africa is within reach of the West

A new era began in South Africa this Friday with the first session of the new parliament. For the first time in the country’s 30-year democratic history, the African National Congress (ANC) no longer determines the fate of the Cape alone, but must form a coalition. A scenario that was unimaginable for a long time. Especially for the ANC.

The old parliament building in Cape Town, undoubtedly one of the most beautiful in the world, is actually available for ceremonial occasions such as the swearing-in of new parliamentarians. But the roof burned down there more than two years ago. And despite a 100 million euro budget, the end of the repair work is not in sight. This is also due to mismanagement. The building has become a symbol of ANC-induced state failure.

Accordingly, the parliamentarians met in a rather mundane congress center to elect the new president. His name is still Cyril Ramaphosa, elected by 283 MPs. In addition to MPs from his own party, the ANC, those from the new coalition partner also voted for him on Friday. And that is, along with several smaller parties, the ANC’s fiercest opponent in parliament to date, the “Democratic Alliance” (DA).

The former rivals signed an agreement that, although somewhat vague, sets out guidelines for government policy and the national budget, as well as the composition of the national cabinet and the provincial governments in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. DA leader John Steenhuisen assured that his party would “co-govern in a spirit of unity and cooperation.”

Apparently, there was a wrangling over details until the very end, and the agreement was only signed after the parliamentary session had already begun. In previous legislative periods, no one had criticized the government’s failings as persistently as the DA. It portrayed the ANC as a kleptocratic and incompetent organization that was also playing with property rights and thus the cornerstones of the economy.

The ruling party, in turn, portrayed the DA as a racist colonial organisation because it is (also) voted for by large parts of the white minority. Since the ANC had lost its absolute majority in the elections, the two opposing parties were now forced to form an alliance. It remains to be seen whether and how the former opponents will get along, not only at the national level but also in the province of KwaZulu-Natal.

In the provincial votes, the ANC splinter party “uMkhonto Wesizwe” (MK), founded just six months ago by the corrupt ex-president Jacob Zuma, did surprisingly well. In KwaZulu-Natal, it received 45 percent straight away. But the ANC and DA, along with two other parties, are blocking MK and Zuma’s path to power. The country’s most important port is located in the province, in Durban.

Ideologically, the alternative to the DA, the left-wing radical “Economic Freedom Fighters” (EFF), is closer to the ANC. However, cooperation at the local level has been disastrous in the past, and the EFF’s demands are too radical even for the ANC.

And the markets also gave clear signals, share prices and currencies plummeted at every rumor in this direction. Even the rating agency “Fitch Ratings” warned, which the EFF branded as western interference. The outrage is quite understandable, and when coalitions are formed in Europe, such companies are also reluctant to give advice.

But the EFF’s seemingly socialist demands, including comprehensive nationalization and expropriation, would have undermined fundamentally correct reforms that Ramaphosa had recently introduced after much hesitation. Few people in the country know this better than the president himself, who became a multimillionaire during his entrepreneurial career.

Ramaphosa, 71, once a shrewd diplomat in the negotiating team to end the apartheid system, acted ingeniously. As part of a “government of national unity,” he invited all “constitutional” parties into the government. This excluded the anti-constitutional MK from the start.

And he calculated that the EFF, which is based exclusively on identity politics, had to decline. Cooperation with the DA is out of the question for the party. The outwitted EFF leader Julius Malema raged that the invitation to a unity government was nothing more than “a smokescreen”. He insulted Ramaphosa as a puppet of white capital.

It is still unclear which ministries the DA has secured. Ramaphosa will be sworn in as president on Wednesday. And then it remains to be seen how resilient a coalition can be that is held together primarily by shared political enemies. Especially since the ANC’s traditional partner organizations, the Communist Party and the trade unions, are not hiding their anger.

The contrast at the top of South Africa is not only enormous in terms of economic policy, it could also be revealed in terms of foreign policy. The ANC is an unconditional supporter of the BRICS alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, while the DA is pro-Western. The ANC is dragging Israel before the International Court of Justice. The DA is reticent about statements on the Gaza war, but has traditionally had good relations with Israel. The ANC avoids criticism of autocrats in Africa. The DA does not.

Things will get interesting in three years at the latest. Then Ramaphosa will have to be replaced after two terms as ANC chairman. A DA-compatible successor is not in sight. But by South African standards, that is a distant dream. For now, the nation can breathe a little easier.