The border between Lebanon and Israel is burning. In recent days, the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets and attack drones at the north of the enemy neighboring country. Fields burned down, buildings had to be evacuated. Israel, for its part, sent fire across the border:
A video posted on “X” shows soldiers operating a catapult that looks like a copy of a medieval slingshot. And using it to shoot a fireball into Lebanon. The Israeli army wants to clear the thicket in the border area where Hezbollah terrorists are hiding and planning attacks, it said.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would probably have liked to copy an attack like the one carried out by Hamas on October 7. He has repeatedly expressed his support and admiration for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Since October 8, Hezbollah has been firing regularly at Israel. In return, Israel has been deliberately killing high-ranking commanders of the terrorist militia.
According to the Israeli military, Hezbollah has fired more than 5,000 rockets, anti-tank missiles and explosive-laden drones at Israel since October. It says it has lost 338 fighters. About 95 Lebanese civilians have been killed, according to the United Nations. In northern Israel, 17 soldiers and nine civilians were killed in the fighting, according to the Alma Research and Education Center.
60,000 Israelis had to be evacuated from their communities in the north of the country. They have been waiting in hotels and makeshift shelters for months. The pressure from the displaced people on the government is growing: Hezbollah must be removed far enough from the border so that they can finally return to their homes. Either through diplomatic efforts – or through military offensives.
There are increasing voices warning of the outbreak of open war with Lebanon. And by this they mean, for example, an Israeli ground offensive in southern Lebanon, the heartland of Hezbollah. Air strikes on Beirut. And rocket attacks from Lebanon on Haifa and Tel Aviv.
“Hezbollah’s increasing aggression brings us to the brink of a major escalation that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region,” said Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari.
The situation is so tense that the US sent a high-ranking adviser to President Joe Biden to the region on Monday. Amos Hochstein is to try to prevent further escalation along the “Blue Line” in talks in Jerusalem and Beirut, according to the US presidential office.
This refers to the demarcation line drawn by the United Nations between Israel and Lebanon. Both sides have not been able to agree on an officially recognized border since the last war in 2006.
Washington has been trying for months to prevent a major war that could ultimately destabilize the Middle East and drag the United States into the abyss. Paris also recently tried to mediate again. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France, the United States and Israel had agreed to work together to push forward a roadmap presented by Paris to de-escalate the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
However, Israeli Defense Minister Joaw Galant rebuffed Macron. Israel would not join the French initiative. Israel is apparently annoyed that French authorities have banned its defense companies from participating in one of the world’s largest defense fairs. There are also increasing calls to limit arms sales to the IDF and to divest from Israeli defense companies.
Now the US is making a new attempt at de-escalation. Envoy Hochstein met with government members and opposition leaders in Israel on Monday. On Tuesday he traveled on to Lebanon. Hochstein warned that a war with Hezbollah could lead to a large-scale Iranian attack on Israel that would be difficult for Israel’s defense systems to repel.
He also made it clear that a ceasefire in the north could only be declared if a ceasefire was declared in the south. This means that the escalation with Lebanon and the Gaza war are inextricably linked. As long as Israel does not cease its fire in Gaza, Hezbollah will not cease its own fire.
The terrorist militia, which serves as Iran’s proxy army, has thus created a situation in which calm in the north depends on Israel’s concessions in the south. This is a strategic success for Hezbollah – or rather Tehran: “We are dealing with a strategy planned by Iran to conduct a multi-front campaign against Israel,” says Sarit Zehavi, founder of the Alma research center, which specializes in Israel’s security problems on its northern border. “What Hezbollah is doing, what Hamas has done, are only parts of this campaign that the Iranians have been preparing for the last decade.”
The trigger was the normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s biggest regional competitor. Tehran recognized this as a threat to its hegemonic power in the Middle East. “That’s why you see everything that’s happening now,” says Zehavi. “Iran is the mastermind behind everything. And the coordination between the different factions, with Hezbollah and Hamas, is continuing as we speak.”
The USA and France have put forward proposals for a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel. They envisage individual steps that should lead to long-term calm on the border. One of these is a withdrawal of Hezbollah to around ten kilometers from the border.
A strengthening of the Lebanese army and the UN troops, which are already stationed on the “Blue Line” and are supposed to ensure peace. And negotiations under American or French-American mediation on the final border between Israel and Lebanon.
Recent damage assessments show what is at stake if de-escalation attempts fail. If thousands of rockets rain down on Israel every day, the health system could collapse and long power outages could become the norm, reported public broadcaster Kan, citing a document from the Ministry of Health.
A member of the Iranian Quds Force, which oversees Tehran’s proxy in the Middle East, explained to “Foreign Policy” which weapons the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had equipped Hezbollah with: Precision-guided missiles, Katyusha rockets with increased accuracy and anti-tank missiles are now part of their arsenal – which includes more than a million missiles of various types.