Following the agreement with Hungary, it is almost certain that long-standing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO Secretary General. And in the internal negotiations on the composition of the new EU Commission, it is becoming apparent that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas could possibly become the new foreign policy chief. This would mean that two fierce critics of Russia and reliable supporters of Ukraine would occupy key positions in the Western alliance. A double blow for Moscow.
Rutte had long enjoyed the support of a large number of NATO partners, with only Hungary, Slovakia and Romania not supporting him. But now Hungary has caved in and on the same day Slovakia also gave up its resistance. On Thursday Romania also gave Rutte the green light.
The decisive turning point began last week when Rutte assured Budapest that he would not use Hungarian money or Hungarian soldiers to support Ukraine. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán posted a letter from Rutte on X in which he promised to stick to this agreement as NATO Secretary General. “In view of this assurance, Hungary is ready to support Prime Minister Rutte in his application for the post of NATO Secretary General,” Orban wrote. Rutte’s nomination is therefore largely secured.
“With Prime Minister Orbán’s announcement, I believe we are very close to reaching a conclusion to select the next Secretary General, and I think that is good news,” said NATO chief Stoltenberg at a press conference in Washington on Tuesday. Rutte is a very strong candidate, said Stoltenberg. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis also applied. However, he was unable to gather as broad a support base behind him as Rutte. Parallel to the end of the Romanian blockade, Iohannis withdrew his application for the top NATO post. The bourgeois-liberal Rutte is the longest-serving Dutch prime minister and is thus used to holding together very diverse and fragmented coalitions.
Among Western heads of state, Rutte is one of the harshest critics of Russia and its aggression against Ukraine. On Saturday, at the peace conference in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, he was the one who found the harshest words for Moscow’s alleged “peace offer,” which was more of a call for Ukraine to surrender. The proposal was “absolutely crazy,” said Rutte. But it was a good sign that Russia’s president had made it at all. “This shows that Putin is panicking,” said Rutte.
There are several reasons for Rutte’s resolute support for Ukraine. On the one hand, it has to do with Rutte’s liberal convictions, but also with the fact that the Netherlands and its prime minister still have a score to settle with the Putin regime. After all, in 2014, during Russia’s first war against Ukraine, it was a Russian air defense system that shot down a Malaysia Airlines passenger plane that had taken off from Amsterdam over Ukraine on its way to Kuala Lumpur. 283 passengers and 15 crew members died, 193 of whom were Dutch citizens.
And so, after Russia’s renewed attack, the Netherlands positioned itself as a keen supporter of Ukraine and even played a pioneering role in the delivery of new Western weapons systems. After all, it was the Netherlands that first declared its willingness to deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and is now also leading the coalition to train Ukrainian pilots. After the Russian invasion, Rutte also increased the Netherlands’ defense spending to over two percent in order to do justice to the new security situation on the continent.
The Dutchman would also be suitable to steer NATO through a possible new Trump presidency. During Trump’s first term in office, Rutte was considered one of the few Europeans who managed to build a good relationship with Trump. Rutte will most likely be confirmed at the next NATO summit on July 9-11, which will also mark the alliance’s 75th anniversary.
In the future, a NATO Secretary General Rutte could be flanked by another high-profile Russia critic from Eastern Europe. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is currently being considered a promising candidate to succeed Josep Borrell as EU foreign policy chief. Kallas, like Rutte, initially applied for the post of NATO Secretary General, but was blocked by Berlin, among other things, because of her hard anti-Russian stance. However, her chances of getting the EU post now seem more promising.
During the more than two years of war, Kallas has established herself as one of the most respected voices from Eastern Europe. She does not mince her words and is valued by many for her clever analyses of Russia, which are shaped by the long and painful experience of Eastern European states with Russian colonialism. Kallas also rightly points out that those in Eastern Europe who were often accused of anti-Russian paranoia in the past were ultimately correct in their assessment of the Russian threat.
In March, Kallas had already called for one of the top jobs in the EU or NATO for Eastern Europe in an interview with Politico. “We have been members of NATO and the EU for 19 years now,” said Kallas. “Do we have worse staff than the old Europeans? Or are we not ready yet?” asked Kallas. “The answer is no, we actually have very good staff. We should be on the radar for the top jobs.”
Eastern Europe expert Nico Lange believes that the Estonian politician would represent “a good upgrade” for the position of foreign affairs representative. “Kaja Kallas is valued by many because she belongs to a younger generation of politicians who are unpretentious, pragmatic and clear,” Lange told “ntv”. Many Central Eastern Europeans and Northern Europeans feel that Kallas represents them in their positions. “We definitely need more politicians in top positions who are in their 40s and fewer men over 60,” said Lange.
The question, however, is whether the complicated EU arithmetic will actually result in Kallas being given the job of foreign policy representative, or perhaps another Commission post. The three top jobs – EU Commission President, EU Council President and High Representative – are hotly contested between the political groups in the EU Parliament.
The election winners, the EPP, can once again claim the post of Commission President, and everything points to another term for Ursula von der Leyen. The EU Council Presidency, currently held by Charles Michel, could go to the socialist Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa and the post of Foreign Affairs Representative to the Liberals, of which Kallas is also a member. However, this is apparently still being blocked by Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who argues that her right-wing conservative ECR group should also get a top post because it has more representatives in the new parliament than the Liberals.
The Eastern Europeans, on the other hand, argue geographically. Von der Leyen represents old Western Europe, Costa would represent the South, and now Eastern Europe is also getting one of the top jobs. In fact, the resistance that Kalla’s application for the NATO top post had triggered seems to have largely evaporated.
A nomination of Kallas for the prominent post of EU foreign policy chief would in any case be a clear signal to Moscow, demonstrating the EU’s determination to continue supporting Ukraine in the long term. Together with Rutte as NATO Secretary General, the duo would form a bulwark of Ukraine supporters that would be able to withstand a renewed presidency of Trump, who is close to Russia and hostile to NATO and Ukraine.