(Ottawa) “Bring it home! » It’s not just Edmonton Oilers fans who will chant this slogan on Monday, they who hope to see the Stanley Cup return to Canada for the first time since 1993. The conservative troops also want to see their foal win the bet in Toronto–St. Paul’s, and thus put an end to the liberal domination well established since… 1993.
Under normal circumstances, a text about a by-election in a Liberal stronghold of Toronto – on June 24, at that – would be buried at the bottom of the issue. But this year, against a backdrop of Justin Trudeau’s record unpopularity, times are uncertain.
From the outset, let us point out that the Liberal Party is letting it be known, behind the scenes, that its color carrier Leslie Church will be able to pull off a victory, with a slim lead over her Conservative Party opponent Don Stewart.
Polling specialist Philippe J. Fournier comes to the same projection.
The last time the margin was really close in the “416” riding (Toronto’s area code) was in 2011, the year Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won a majority mandate. With only an 8.2% lead, Carolyn Bennett has never been so hot.
In the eight other elections in which she triumphed, from 1997 to 2021, her lead margins oscillated between 23.8% (2008) and 38% (2004). But then, Carolyn Bennett did not intend to run again in the next election, and Justin Trudeau appointed her Canadian ambassador to Denmark.
Hence this additional ballot at the start of the summer season. “The participation rate is likely to be very low. It’s a cliché, except that it’s true in this case: if the Liberals can’t get their vote out, they could lose,” warns Philippe J. Fournier.
A former strategist for the federal and Quebec Liberals, Jeremy Ghio shares this reading.
According to preliminary data from Elections Canada, 10,787 out of 84,668 eligible voters (12.7%) have already completed their ballots. They had 84 candidates to choose from, including dozens registered as independents for the “Longest Ballot Committee,” a group that challenges the current voting system.
Only two candidates have a chance of winning: Leslie Church and Don Stewart. The former was chief of staff to Mélanie Joly and Chrystia Freeland. The latter comes from the financial world and worked in the public relations firm of Jenni Byrne, a close advisor to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Their teams declined our interview request last Friday. If the conservative banner-bearer did not grant it to any national media, his liberal rival did, however, speak with several of them, including La Presse Canadienne.
To the press agency, which asked her if this election had the appearance of a referendum on the leadership of Justin Trudeau, she replied this: “I think some are tempted to present it that way. But these are local elections, and Trudeau is not on the ballot. Neither does Poilievre. »
The Prime Minister dodged the same question last Thursday, on the sidelines of an announcement in Nova Scotia. Instead, he presented the exercise as a referendum on the future vision for Canada, while attempting to define several months in advance the question of the ballot box for the next general election.
“There is a real choice that people are going to make in St. Paul’s that is going to be a reflection of the choice that people will have to make next year in the elections – what kind of country we want to live in,” he added. the Prime Minister, accusing the Leader of the Opposition of “always siding with the more fortunate.”
If fortune does not favor the Liberals on Monday, Jeremy Ghio has difficulty seeing how Justin Trudeau’s resignation, which some are speculating about, would help the cause. “We have to get out of our heads that magically things will go better if we change bosses. There’s not even a year left until the next election,” he pleads.
And this, even if, “in a rational world where people make decisions based on data, a Prime Minister who has been there for almost a decade and who loses a first seat in a fortified castle while the polls are crap for a year should leave,” adds Philippe J. Fournier.
Who will take what home?
To be continued on a sports channel, or on the parliamentary channel.
