While the war between Ukraine and Moscow continues with undiminished intensity after more than two years, Kiev is negotiating accession to the European Union starting today, Tuesday. In so-called intergovernmental conferences, the guidelines for the accession talks will be laid down, which will also begin with the Republic of Moldova. A total of nine states have the status of EU accession candidates. However, they are at very different stages of the talks. In addition to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, the candidate countries include the six Western Balkan countries of Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. WELT answers the most important questions.
That is completely unclear. Kiev is pushing for rapid membership – also to give a boost to the country’s reconstruction and the motivation of the population. “Motivation is a weapon. And it must be loaded,” said Ukraine’s President Zelensky. One thing is certain: as long as the war in Ukraine is not over, the EU will never agree to accession. Otherwise, it would have a military assistance obligation under Article 42 paragraph 7. It is not even certain whether Ukraine will join at all in the next 20 or 30 years.
The decision will depend largely on how the peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev go at a date that is still unknown. Theoretically, it is also conceivable that an accession candidate will never become a member. That is exactly what could happen in this case. The EU’s accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, which are formally completely independent of each other, are politically closely linked. It can be assumed that Moldova will only join when a peace treaty has been reached between Moscow and Kiev. Behind closed doors, there is great concern in Brussels that Moldova’s accession without Moscow’s consent could lead to an attack on the country by Russia. To be clear: the decision on Ukraine and Moldova’s EU membership is not made by the European Union alone, but also by Moscow.
There are a total of 35 negotiation chapters on various topics such as the economy, foreign policy and justice. The European Commission carries out a “screening” for each negotiation chapter to determine the extent to which the national law of the candidate country deviates from EU legal norms, the so-called acquis, and needs to be adapted. The 27 member states decide unanimously on the opening and closing of a negotiation chapter following a prior recommendation from the EU Commission.
Brussels is demanding that progress be made at an early stage on basic accession requirements such as the rule of law, fundamental rights and the strengthening of democratic institutions. However, the process will probably begin with an “easy” chapter, such as cultural issues. For the first time in the history of the EU, a country at war is negotiating membership – Ukraine.
Opinions differ widely between the capitals as to whether the Union should therefore turn a blind eye to Kiev’s compliance with the accession requirements. A unanimous decision by the member states is necessary for each individual negotiation step. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán smugly noted that there are still “at least 75 opportunities” to stop Ukraine’s accession.
In the case of Moldova, it is generally larger than in the case of Ukraine because the country is much smaller and is not at war. The Baltic and Eastern European states are demanding that Kiev join in the coming years, but many states such as France, Italy and Spain are skeptical. Hungary is against joining. Germany has so far been largely neutral, but from Kiev’s perspective it is too cautious.
EU officials familiar with the talks told WELT: “Actually, accession talks with Ukraine should never have started now because the conditions are far from being met, for example in the area of combating corruption.” The Commission authority headed by Ursula von der Leyen is officially pushing for accession as quickly as possible. EU Council President Charles Michel recently named 2030 as the target date. But that is probably unrealistic. The head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the EU Parliament, David McAllister (CDU), warns against turbo membership. Accession is “still a long way off,” he said.
Voters’ opinions on Ukraine’s accession vary widely, with support high only in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. In Austria, for example, according to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations, only 28 percent of respondents at the end of last year believed that Ukraine should become an EU member, while in Germany the figure was 37 percent. Many people fear consequences for the EU’s security and exorbitant costs. These fears are not unfounded. According to a study by the German Economic Institute (IW), under current conditions, almost 20 percent of the entire EU budget would flow to Ukraine alone.
Although the EU promised the Western Balkan states accession in 2003, no country has yet become a member. There are now fears in the Western Balkans that Ukraine and Moldova could be admitted earlier, although in most cases accession talks began much later. Accordingly, accusations of a “two-class society” are being made. The issue is politically extremely sensitive and the mood could lead to people in the Western Balkans losing trust in the EU.
The EU’s so-called absorption capacity for new members plays a central role during a country’s accession process. This aspect is often neglected in the debate about Ukraine’s accession. Under current conditions, the EU would not be able to manage membership in the case of a large and partially destroyed country such as Ukraine – unlike in the case of Moldova. The costs would simply be too high and the other member states would have to cut back accordingly.
What options does Brussels have? Either the EU budget (1,100 billion euros for seven years) could be drastically increased or the current rules, particularly regarding the distribution of agricultural and regional funding, would have to be changed. Both would be extremely difficult to implement politically, especially if the right-wing populists in Europe were to become even stronger. This was especially true as the Western Balkan states also have financial claims to make in the negotiations. In addition, the voting rules in foreign and financial policy would have to be changed so that a Union that will consist of 33 to 36 members in the future can still make decisions. To do this, the requirement of unanimity on important issues would have to be abolished so that one country cannot block all other members. But this would again require unanimity, which is considered almost impossible from today’s perspective.
It will probably take several decades before Ukraine and Moldova join the EU. The EU is deeply divided on this issue. The only consensus is to begin accession talks now in order to support Kiev in its defensive struggle against the Russian aggressor. Ukraine’s accession would have serious consequences for the EU, particularly in terms of distribution issues. How this would affect support for the European project remains to be seen.