(Ottawa) Conservative candidate Don Stewart took a late lead to finally win Monday’s by-election in the federal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, Ontario, causing a surprise that could have serious consequences in Ottawa.
All ballot boxes have now been counted. Mr. Stewart won with a 590-vote margin ahead of Liberal candidate Leslie Church, which was an unexpected victory for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
The counting of votes continued until early Tuesday, in particular due to the large number of applications. There were 84 in total, with dozens registered as independents for the “Longest Ballot Committee,” a group that challenges the current voting system. Elections Canada had warned that this would make the count take longer than usual.
While these nominations almost all received fewer than 20 votes, their inclusion on the list nevertheless caused delays, as the ballots were all over a meter long and had to be unfolded like a map for each one to be counted.
The riding of Toronto–St. Paul’s, a Liberal stronghold since 1988, was represented in Ottawa by Carolyn Bennett since 1997. Except for a narrower victory in 2011 (8.2%), the former minister has always done very well, with margins fluctuating between 23.8% (2008) and 38% (2004).
Last January, Justin Trudeau appointed Ms. Bennett as Canada’s ambassador to Denmark, since she did not intend to seek a mandate in the next federal election – hence the by-election which gave the Liberals a cold sweat.
Another test awaits the Liberal Party in the coming months, when a by-election will be held in the riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, vacant since the resignation of former Minister of Justice David Lametti last February.
The Liberal nomination has not yet taken place and a few contenders are in the running.
Among the New Democrats, independent municipal councilor Craig Sauvé was selected as the color bearer. He is also due to take a walkabout on Wellington Street alongside Chief Jagmeet Singh and Deputy Chief Alexandre Boulerice this Tuesday.
For the Liberals, the task could be easier here than in Toronto–St. Paul’s, projects survey specialist Philippe J. Fournier, from the site 338Canada. “The vote is divided. The NDP and Bloc should easily have 20% each, so the Liberals can win with 36% of the vote, for example,” he says.
The date of the by-election in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun must be announced by July 30. The vote must take place on a Monday, between 36 and 50 days after the by-election is called, according to Elections Canada rules.
