The United States will once again be the favorite to top the medal table at the Paris Olympics next month. The big question, however, is whether they can win the gold medal race against China.
The United States is expected to earn a total of 123 medals — 37 gold, 34 silver and 52 bronze. China is expected to collect 87 — 36 gold, 29 silver and 22 bronze.
These forecasts were made by Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which provides statistical analysis to sports leagues around the world. The company also follows major competitions in various Olympic disciplines, before the Olympics are held.
Gracenote’s ranking is based on the number of medals won, although other companies prefer to develop it based on the number of gold medals. The International Olympic Committee does not compile rankings, instead leaving this task to countries and local media.
The United States would top the medal table for the eighth consecutive time at the Summer Games. In Barcelona in 1992, the Unified Team had finished first in the medal standings. These athletes came from the defunct Soviet Union, which had just collapsed as a sovereign nation.
Behind the United States and China, respectively in the medal and gold medal tables in Paris, are: Great Britain (62-14), France (56-29), Australia (48- 13), Japan (46-12), Italy (46-11), Germany (37-10), the Netherlands (34-17) and South Korea (29-8).
The next 10 are: Hungary (23-7), Canada (20-6), Spain (18-4), Ukraine (17-2), Brazil (16-7), New Zealand (16-4), Poland (15-5), Denmark (14-5), Turkey (14-4) and Ethiopia (13-2).
The host nation always gets a more generous medal haul, and France is expected to benefit as well after winning 33 medals in Tokyo in 2021. France is expected to triple its number of gold medals compared to Tokyo, where Japan had Elsewhere recorded a record harvest.
A big unknown remains: the presence of Russia and — to a lesser extent — Belarus. They have been absent from most international competitions for two years due to the invasion of Ukraine. We still don’t know how many will be in Paris, and the impact they will have on medal predictions, Gracenote acknowledged.
