The impact of the recent debate on the presidential race is still uncertain, as there have been limited access to quality polls to gauge the national mood accurately. While some surveys suggest a slight decrease in President Biden’s numbers since the debate, most of these polls are opt-in online polls with a less established track record for accuracy.
In order to obtain a clear picture of the post-debate sentiment, high-quality polls that use the most reliable surveying methods are needed. The New York Times polling average, which considers all polls but gives more weight to those of higher quality, does show a slight decline in President Biden’s numbers.
Public opinion takes time to form around an issue, and with only a portion of the eligible voting population watching the debate live, it is essential to consider other ways in which people engage with the event, such as watching clips after the fact or discussing it with friends. Conducting high-quality polls also requires time, typically four or five days at a minimum, as pollsters need to reach out to various groups, including younger voters and Hispanic voters without college degrees.
Overall, it may take about a week or longer before a more definitive understanding of how the debate has influenced the American public emerges. More reliable polls are necessary to accurately capture the sentiments of the electorate and provide a clearer picture of the election race dynamics following the debate.
