Israelis are not a quiet audience. There is whispering at the security conference at the University of Herzliya. It is a major annual event at which important voices from Israel and its international partners analyze the situation in the Middle East. They all paint a bleak picture of the future: Israel’s seemingly endless war in the Gaza Strip, in which the Islamist Hamas is still the decisive force despite heavy blows from the Israeli army.
Terror leader Sinwar, who continues to prevent the release of Israeli hostages in return for a ceasefire. Great tension in the West Bank and on the border with Lebanon, from where Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, has been firing countless rockets and attack drones at Israel since October 8.
The speakers sharply criticize the “indecisive conduct of the war” by the Netanyahu government. Occasionally, shouts of “Amen” ring out in the large lecture hall. But when the German Foreign Minister steps onto the podium on Monday evening, it becomes quiet. When Annalena Baerbock criticizes Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip and the settler violence in the West Bank, you could hear a pin drop.
The foreign minister dares to give a speech in English that strongly condemns Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. But she also openly expresses what she expects from Israel. This clarity is new from a German politician.
Baerbock then follows Merkel’s principle that Israel’s security is part of Germany’s raison d’état. The then Chancellor coined it in a speech to the Knesset in 2008. Since then, many German politicians have repeated this sentence without elaborating on what it actually means. Baerbock also stresses that Germany stands firmly by Israel’s side. “But what does that mean today?” asks the Foreign Minister in Herzlia. And she draws up a four-point plan for how she envisions the post-war order in the Gaza Strip.
Security for all Israelis is only possible if there is also security for the Palestinians. And that can only be achieved within the framework of a two-state solution. “I know that this is not a popular opinion among everyone here in Israel, perhaps even less so today than before October 7.”
That is an understatement. In Israel, demands for an independent Palestinian state are causing resentment. Such a state could be seen as a reward for the Hamas attack, they say. This is likely to be particularly offensive in the Netanyahu government, which is made up of right-wing hardliners who dream of repopulating the Gaza Strip and annexing the West Bank. Just like Baerbock’s second point.
The Foreign Minister urges Israel to abide by international law. Reports of the alleged mistreatment of prisoners from the Gaza Strip have disturbed her, just as “extremist settlers in the West Bank brutally drive Palestinians out of their homes, far too often without being prosecuted.” Baerbock mentions “certain members of the Israeli cabinet” who are pushing for the financial destruction of the Palestinian Authority (PA). And measures “that would further strengthen the occupation of the West Bank.”
Without mentioning him, Baerbock also addresses Prime Minister Netanyahu when she describes the recent Biden plan for a hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas as the “key” to calm in the Middle East. This plan envisages three phases in which Hamas will first release wounded, elderly and female hostages before, in a second step, all remaining Israeli hostages are released – in return for a withdrawal of Israeli troops, a ceasefire and the reconstruction of the destroyed coastal enclave.
Hamas is resisting. Netanyahu has reluctantly agreed to the Biden plan, but has repeatedly angered the US with contrary statements. Unlimited Israeli control over the Gaza Strip is not an option, says Baerbock. Germany is calling on Hamas to “accept this plan, and we are counting on Israel to stick to its commitments.”
But what will happen to Gaza if Israel withdraws? “We must take a realistic look at the future of the Gaza Strip. A Gaza in which Palestinian women, men and children can live in dignity and without fear. And above all, a Gaza from which Hamas no longer poses a threat to the existence of the State of Israel.” Suddenly the hall comes to life again; the Israeli audience applauds the German Foreign Minister.
What kind of governance would come the day after? How would one finance economic reconstruction and ensure that it would not be misused to build new terrorist structures? Baerbock’s answer: A reformed PA would have to take over the Gaza Strip.
Until that happens, an international alliance is needed that provides security guarantees for Israel. Germany wants to be part of these allies, which should consist of Europe, the USA and regional Arab partners. More specifically, this could mean that Germany, as part of the EU, ensures security on the border between Gaza and Israel.
“I belong to the generation that had the great privilege of living my whole life in West Germany in a democracy and in freedom and peace.” Others were there back then who helped their grandparents’ generation build a democratic state and provided security guarantees. “Just as our partners were there for us back then, we want to be there for you today,” says Baerbock.
Concrete security commitments – that is green realpolitik. And yet the minister also weaves in her much-proclaimed “values-based foreign policy”: “Women need a seat at the table when it comes to this legislation.” There is applause in the hall again. “Because we see this all over the world: peace treaties do not last long if women, who make up half of societies all over the world, in every religion and in every country, are not included.”
Baerbock’s plan for an Arab-American-European alliance to rebuild Gaza and provide temporary security there sounds good, but is extremely difficult. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which have entered into diplomatic relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, would have to play a decisive role.
And above all Saudi Arabia, the major Sunni power in the region and opponent of Shiite Iran. But the US efforts to normalize relations between Riyadh and Jerusalem have stalled with the Gaza war. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are calling for a Palestinian state as the goal of such efforts. Supervision of Gaza in cooperation with the Arab states is also being considered in Netanyahu’s circles. But with his current coalition, implementation does not seem possible.
That is why Baerbock made it clear again in her talks with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz and the new Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa on Tuesday: The “aggressive settlement policy” in the West Bank must stop, she warned Israel.
“It is irresponsible that the customs and tax revenues to which the PA is entitled under the Oslo Accords are now completely blocked by the Israeli authorities.” She said, however, that Mustafa’s economic and political reform plans in the West Bank, where the PA has ruled for 18 years without elections, “must then come to fruition.”
On Tuesday, the Foreign Minister will travel on to Lebanon, also with a warning on this issue: With every rocket that crosses the border, “the danger grows that a miscalculation will trigger a hot war from one moment to the next,” said Baerbock in Jerusalem. All those who bear responsibility must therefore exercise extreme restraint – “and above all, Hezbollah must stop firing at Israel.” She will make this clear during her visit to Beirut.
