A recent poll showing that former President Trump is trailing President Biden by just single digits in deep blue New York has raised concerns among Democrats. Longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf mentioned that the poll indicates a general dissatisfaction among voters. With less than five months before the election, people are unhappy about taxes, crime, and disorder in the state. This dissatisfaction could benefit the out party, whether Republicans or Democrats, in the upcoming election.
The recent Siena College poll revealed that there is an eight percentage-point difference between Biden and Trump in New York, with Biden leading 47% to 39%. Sheinkopf, who has vast experience in political campaigns, explained that many voters dislike both candidates and are struggling to make a decision. If the election results mirror the poll numbers, it would be a historic achievement for a GOP presidential candidate in New York and a troubling sign for Biden, who won the state by 23 points in 2020.
According to Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, Biden enjoys the support of three-quarters of Democrats, while Trump has the backing of 85% of Republicans and leads Biden 45% to 28% among independents. There is a gender gap, with men favoring Trump and women favoring Biden. White voters are evenly split, and Trump has garnered support from 29% of Black and 26% of Latino voters.
The poll also revealed that Biden’s job approval rating is at 45% approve to 53% disapprove, with a favorability rating of 42% favorable to 53% unfavorable. These numbers are the lowest recorded by Siena College for Biden. Despite the dissatisfaction with both candidates, the close race between a Democratic incumbent and Republican challenger echoes the competitive nature of recent elections in New York.
Former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin noted that recent polls show a downward trend for Biden in New York, with issues like immigration and the economy shifting to the right. Zeldin also pointed out that the Democratic brand and the profile of Democratic elected officials in New York are facing challenges, which could benefit the Trump campaign.
As the CNN Presidential Debate approaches, both Biden and Trump will have the opportunity to make their cases to the American people. Sheinkopf emphasized the importance of Biden appearing strong and speaking clearly during the debate. The dynamics of the upcoming election are unprecedented, with Trump’s conviction and continued political influence adding a unique twist to the race.
In conclusion, the competitive nature of the upcoming election in New York reflects a broader trend of dissatisfaction among voters with both candidates. The outcome of the election will depend on how Biden and Trump present themselves to the American people and address the key issues facing the country. As the campaign unfolds, it will be interesting to see how the candidates navigate these challenges and make their case to the voters.
