(Ottawa) “This is obviously not the result we wanted,” admitted Justin Trudeau the day after the Liberal discomfiture in a Toronto castle. His conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, for his part, believes that the Prime Minister “can no longer continue like this”, and that he “must call an election on the carbon tax now”.

Liberals – and pollsters, and observers – expected a narrow victory.

The conservatives doubted they would be able to achieve the feat.

And after a long count, early Tuesday morning, the result came in – like the Liberal stronghold of Toronto–St. Paul’s, which collapsed after three decades of being red.

Conservative Don Stewart thus had the upper hand over Leslie Church by 590 votes (42.1% against 40.5% of the votes cast), after lagging behind for several hours.

The Prime Minister reacted to this thaw in a written statement sent by his office.

“This is obviously not the outcome we wanted, but I want to make it clear that I hear your concerns and your frustrations,” he maintained.

“It’s clear that I and my entire Liberal team still have a lot of work to do to make real, tangible progress that Canadians can see and feel,” he added.

Despite this electoral slap, Prime Minister Trudeau does not intend to leave his post, according to our information.

In any case, he has the confidence of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. “He must not leave,” she said at a press briefing in Toronto on Tuesday.

“Yes, I am disappointed by the results. We must take them seriously, and we do,” added the woman who is also Minister of Finance.

One thing is certain, a serious examination of conscience is required, believes Jeremy Ghio, a former strategist with the federal and Quebec Liberals.

“This county has gone through the liberal crises of the last 30 years. The sponsorship scandal, Jack Layton’s orange wave, Stephen Harper’s majority government,” he emphasizes.

While this poor performance sends a message, it is that “the results could be even more catastrophic than in 2011 [in the next general elections]”, he says.

The first thing Justin Trudeau must do is reassure the Liberal troops, believes Jeremy Ghio, who is now director at Tact Conseil.

“He should speak to his caucus today [Tuesday], he says. Morale must be low, and conversely, panic must be high. »

A loss in one of the constituencies considered to be the safest raises fears for the others in the Queen City, reports polling expert Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the 338Canada site.

“If a swing like that happens in Toronto, half of Toronto could turn blue [Conservative]. And there, we enter a fairly dangerous zone for liberals,” he says.

A dangerous area that could relegate the Liberal Party to the role of second opposition.

“With the Bloc Québécois performing well in Quebec, if the Liberals have such a result in the general election, they finish third and [Bloc leader] Yves-François Blanchet is leader of the opposition,” he says.

The counting of ballots was laborious in Toronto–St. Paul’s, because there were 84 candidates.

The majority of them were part of a group that challenges the distortions resulting from the current first-past-the-post voting system.

Another test awaits the Liberal Party in the coming months, when a by-election will be held in the riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.

This has been vacant since the resignation of former Minister of Justice David Lametti last February.

The Liberal nomination has not yet taken place and a few contenders are in the running.

Among the New Democrats, independent municipal councilor Craig Sauvé was selected as the color bearer.

He is also due to take a walkabout on Wellington Street alongside Chief Jagmeet Singh and Deputy Chief Alexandre Boulerice this Tuesday.

For the Liberals, the task could be easier here than in Toronto–St. Paul’s, projects Philippe J. Fournier.

“The vote is divided. The NDP and Bloc should easily have 20% each, so the Liberals can win with 36% of the vote, for example,” he says.

The date of the by-election in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun must be announced by July 30.

The vote must take place on a Monday, between 36 and 50 days after the by-election is called, according to Elections Canada rules.