The real estate agency Royal LePage expects an 8% decline in the price of second homes in Quebec in 2023, the largest decline among Canadian provinces.
In 2022, the representative price of a single-family home in recreational markets was $373,400 in Quebec, Royal LePage calculated. During the same period, the price of a waterfront home was around $480,200, while the price of a resort condo reached $341,900.
This year, the representative price of a second home will slide to $343,528, down 8% year-on-year. In Canada, the expected price drop is only 4.5%.
In its analysis, Royal LePage expects cottages to suffer more than the principal residence market in urban markets, because the bubble has inflated more in the case of secondary residences.
As part of a survey of brokers, they have the perception that demand has faded at the same time as the supply of cottages for sale has become scarce. On the net, the time to sell has lengthened, according to 8 out of 10 brokers.
Demand is showing obvious signs of weakness. With the end of sanitary measures, potential buyers are more likely to travel than to maintain a second home. Inflation and tighter financing conditions have also dampened the enthusiasm of potential purchasers.
“The recreational property market is expected to continue to balance in Quebec in 2023, but this balance could shift if the central bank starts to cut its overnight rate, stimulating real estate demand,” Royal LePage wrote in a statement. . Conversely, if rates were to rise again, reduced household affordability would force a more pronounced downward adjustment in property prices. The supply of properties for sale would therefore be expected to increase more significantly than in 2022.”
Despite the expected drop in 2023, the price of chalets still remains 35% higher than it was in 2020, underlines the real estate agency.
Among the regions studied, it is in Lanaudière that the median price of houses has seen the greatest increase in 2022, climbing by approximately 25% in the MRCs of Montcalm and Matawinie. For condos, the MRC Les Laurentides and Bromont are tied with a 34% increase in the median price.
In the Quebec City region, price increases varied from 7.2% to 17.1% depending on the MRC in 2022. “The great challenge of the real estate market in 2023 will be that of financing,” said Marc Bonenfant in the same press release. , residential and commercial real estate broker at Royal LePage Inter-Québec. “Many buyers have had to reduce their property search criteria to meet their mortgage pre-approval, or have simply postponed their project. »
