Democrats are looking to potentially win two out of Iowa’s four House seats, based on a recent poll. Currently, all four House seats in the state are held by Republicans. The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll indicates that Democrats are leading in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, while Republicans are ahead in the 2nd and 4th Districts.
In the 1st Congressional District, 53% of respondents expressed a preference for the Democratic candidate, while 37% said they would vote for the Republican. This gives Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan a significant 16-point lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in their 2022 rematch contest. Miller-Meeks had won by nearly 7 percentage points in the previous election.
The poll also shows that in the 3rd Congressional District, 48% of voters favor the Democratic candidate, while 41% support the Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn. Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam is currently ahead by 7 points in this race.
Moving on to the 2nd Congressional District, the poll reveals that 45% of respondents prefer the Republican candidate, while 42% support the Democrat. Incumbent Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a narrow three-point lead over Democrat Sarah Corkery in this district.
In the 4th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra is leading by a significant 16-point margin over Democratic challenger Ryan Melton. The poll found that 53% of voters in this district support the Republican, while 37% back the Democrat.
This latest polling data marks the first time since September 2020 that Democrats have had the advantage statewide in congressional races. In the previous poll in September, Republicans were favored statewide by 52% to 44%. However, there has been a shift in voter sentiment towards Democrats since then.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 28-31 and surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters, including those who had already voted or intended to do so. The margin of error for the statewide results was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, while for congressional districts, it was a maximum of plus or minus 7.2 percentage points.
Overall, these poll results suggest a potentially significant shift in the political landscape in Iowa, with Democrats poised to make gains in the upcoming House elections. It will be interesting to see how these dynamics play out on Election Day and what impact they may have on the balance of power in the state.