(Washington) More than a year after the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, international economic institutions continue to support the Ukrainian government, as the amount of destruction and the need for reconstruction grow as the war continues .
According to an estimate jointly released on Wednesday by the World Bank (WB), the Ukrainian government, the UN and the European Union (EU), reconstruction needs now stand at more than 411 billion dollars since the beginning of the conflict. . An unsurprising total up from the previous valuation of $350 billion, made at the end of October.
These 411 billion represent more than twice the Ukrainian GDP in 2021, and even 2.6 times that of 2022, the year during which national wealth contracted by 30%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, noted Anna Bjerde, WB Vice President for Europe and Central Asia, “the destruction did not continue at the same rate as that observed during the first three months of the war”, in particular because that “the heaviest fighting is concentrated in areas that have already suffered extensive damage”.
The estimate published on Wednesday could still be below reality, recalled the Ukrainian government, insofar as it does not take into account the regions currently under Russian occupation.
“We thank the World Bank for its analysis, which will be an important tool for us and our partners in the launch of future recovery projects, which have already begun”, nevertheless commented the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Chmyhal, quoted in a communicated.
Because the Ukrainian government has already launched the reconstruction, thanks in particular to the aid received from international institutions and the United States.
On Tuesday, the IMF announced that it had reached an agreement to launch a four-year, $15.6 billion aid package, one of the largest currently underway within the institution.
The objective of this plan is to “support gradual economic recovery while creating the conditions for long-term growth in a context of post-conflict reconstruction and on the road to accession to the European Union” (EU ), had specified the Fund.
An announcement that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen “welcomed”, adding that the United States “will continue to support the government and people of Ukraine as long as necessary” in the face of Russia.
Since the beginning of the conflict, the United States has provided massive financial support to the government of Kyiv, granting it 110 billion dollars, more than half of which relates to material military aid. But several tens of billions of dollars have also been used to maintain the daily functioning of public services.
For its part, the WB has already released more than 20 billion dollars, in the form of loans or donations, with 18 billion which have been disbursed.
A significant portion of these funds has helped to keep public services afloat and to pay the salaries of civil servants, as well as to provide care for the displaced in the country.
While the fighting continues, all the actors are already anticipating the reconstruction, which the economic institutions want to see start as soon as possible. They also estimate that the immediate needs in this area amount to 14 billion dollars this year, in order to make “critical and priority investments”.
“The international community and Ukraine have paid for many repairs, which were necessary to keep certain sectors, such as health, transport and energy, afloat,” said Ms. Bjerde, who estimates “around 500 ยป Partially or fully rehabilitated health facilities.
According to the study, the needs are concentrated primarily in the transport sector, housing and energy, which account for around 50% of the damage suffered by Ukraine during the first year of the conflict.
And the reconstruction will be long: “Our estimate is for the next 10 years,” recalled Ms. Bjerde.