There have been no bright spots. With this dry set of Manfred Hübner sums up the Outlook for the global economy. Hübner founded the firm Sentix, which conducts weekly surveys of more than 1000 investors around the world, including several hundred large investors. Current result:
Daniel Mohr
editor of the Frankfurter Allgemeine week.
F. A. Z.
In all regions of the world, the assessment of the economy, a break location and also the expectations for the future. Therefore, Germany is in a downturn, the Eurozone is in a downturn, Eastern Europe in a downturn, the United States is in a downturn, Asia’s, excluding Japan, in the cooling-down, Japan is in a downturn, Latin America in recession and the world economy as a whole during the downturn. “The negative dynamics is as big as the last time in 2007 at the beginning of the financial crisis and the severe recession,” says Hübner.
polls are one thing. The reality of the other. Currently, they are congruent. 21 of the 30 Dax-listed companies currently have of declining profit expectations, twelve of them rapidly. And it is not any of the companies, but Bayer, BASF, Daimler, and Siemens, the heavyweights of German industry.
The Wealth of bad news has forced the German stock market in the knee. More than 20 percent, it has declined since the spring down. Almost 13.600 points to, at times, substantially less than 11,000 points. Just in the last few weeks, Hübner has identified an exceptional rate weakness. “The fourth quarter is actually the best for the stock markets, and there were in the history only seven years in which it was so violently to the bottom as is currently the case,” says the Sentix managing Director. “With major crises: 1929, 1930, and 1932 with the great world economic crisis. In 1937, with the first recession after the global economic crisis. In 1973, after the collapse of the exchange rate system of Bretton Woods. In 1987 after the October Crash and 2008 financial crisis, and thus before the sharp recession of 2009.“
more and more industries have it hard
A pronounced weakness in the equity markets, the safe harbinger of a recession. But one of the strongest indicators of this. And it is always worthwhile to look at what are the factors that move the markets. Andreas Huerkamp, a senior equity strategist at Commerzbank, draws attention to growth in the money supply. It indicates how much money the people have available. The growth in the past few years, dwindling but increasingly, especially in China. “The money supply to grow by only 1.5 percent.” The effect on the car market: “The sales decline significantly, the fourth month in a row of more than ten per cent”, says the equity strategist.
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What this means in practice has shown, BASF, with its considerably downward revision in earnings forecast. The lower end of its previous target range for operating profit is now around 380 to 760 million euros.As the main reasons for the Ludwigshafen chemical group called the dwindling demand in China and the car industry. The low water level in the Rhine for months, the German economy in the breath, should, however, be “only” for 200 million euros.
