The number of asylum applications in EU countries reached a level last year “reminiscent of the refugee crisis of 2015/2016,” the European Union’s asylum agency wrote in its annual report published on Monday. More than 1.1 million people applied for international protection in 2023.
This is indeed the highest figure since the peak of refugee movements – but in detail there are clear differences to the situation eight years ago.
Firstly, asylum applications are more evenly distributed across the EU countries than in 2016. Back then, almost 750,000 of the total 1.3 million applications were submitted in Germany – a share of almost 60 percent. Last year, at around 330,000, the highest number of applications was still there, but that was less than a third of the total.
France, Spain and Italy in particular recorded a significant increase, each reaching record numbers. In terms of population, Germany is only in fourth place in the EU, behind Cyprus, Austria and Greece.
Other countries, particularly in the east of the EU, are still left out: As in previous years, almost no asylum applications were submitted or processed in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Secondly, the proportion of applications that are accepted is significantly lower than in 2016. Back then, almost two thirds of asylum applications were approved, whereas last year the figure was only 43 percent. This is mainly due to the fact that more people are now arriving in the EU from countries of origin that have little chance of being recognized.
In 2015 and 2016, around a quarter of asylum applications came from Syrians, who then, as now, had a recognition rate of over 90 percent. Last year, Syrian refugees still represented the largest group, but only around one sixth of applications. In addition, several EU countries have since expanded their lists of safe countries of origin – Germany, for example, has added Georgia and Moldova.
Thirdly, another major difference can be observed at the EU’s external borders: at the height of the refugee crisis in 2015, the European border protection agency Frontex counted more than 1.8 million illegal border crossings – of which more than 750,000 were on the popular Western Balkan route alone. In 2016, the number was also more than 500,000.
Last year, illegal border crossings increased again, but at 385,000 they were significantly below the level of 2015 and 2016. The migration agreement with Turkey and the recently increased controls at the EU’s external borders are likely to have played an important role here.
Fourth, a look at the pending asylum procedures shows that the authorities are less overloaded than they were eight years ago. In Germany, around 240,000 decisions were pending at the end of 2023, compared to more than 600,000 in December 2016. However, last year around 280,000 more procedures were added across the EU than could be completed.
Despite the efforts of many Member States to simplify and speed up procedures, the overall backlog has increased – albeit at a lower level than at its peak in 2016, when a total of more than one million decisions were pending.
A look at the figures makes it clear that the intensity of the current refugee movements cannot be compared with those of 2015 and 2016. However, there is one factor that did not play a role back then: After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a total of more than four million Ukrainian refugees were granted temporary protection.
The ongoing war of aggression has increased the pressure on the EU’s eastern borders. Together with the increased number of asylum applications, this presents challenges for reception centers – especially when it comes to accommodating refugees.
