You have to wait at least five or six years before making a final judgment on a draft vintage, they say. Sometimes even more in certain particular cases.
That of 2019 reminds us that we must always wait for the date agreed for this purpose. Moreover, we must wonder if the best prospects in this group are not drinking from the same water since several are experiencing a difficult start to the season while their careers seemed to take off last year.
Let’s obviously exclude the first overall pick, Jack Hughes, from the equation, perhaps closer to Connor McDavid than we thought. Despite the Devils’ struggles, Hughes has 30 points in 17 games this season, almost two points on average per game, after producing 99 points in 78 games last year.
After two seasons of 65 points or more (prorated over a full year) before turning 23, center Trevor Zegras, the 9th overall pick, probably would have cracked the top 5 if we’d had fun playing redo the draft.
Contract negotiations dragged on in his case, management did not want to make him a long-term offer since there were still concerns about him despite his offensive production, then new coach Greg Cronin brought out the whip : Zegras was moved to the wing, 18-year-old rookie Leo Carlsson was even preferred to center, and the intention to teach Zegras the intricacies of defensive play was publicly announced. Zegras had two points in twelve games on his record when he injured his groin. His return is planned around the holidays.
Another center, Dylan Cozens, the 7th overall pick, might have inherited a third overall pick in a rebuilt draft. He was at the heart of the Sabres’ rise to power with 68 points, including 31 goals, in 81 games, the best performance of any member of his vintage after Jack Hughes.
After obtaining seven points in his first eight games, Cozens fell into a worrying lethargy: only four points in his next fifteen games, for eleven points in total and eighth place in scorers among the Sabres. The injury to Tage Thompson allows him to remain at the center of the second trio, and the first center position is now filled by Casey Mittelstadt, from whom we no longer expected much two years ago.
Forward Matt Boldy also had a big breakthrough at age 21 last year, with 31 goals and 63 points with the Minnesota Wild. At 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, he is the dream power forward. But he spent the first quarter of the season answering reporters for his unproductiveness. He has three goals and ten points in fifteen games on his record, and two points in three games since the dismissal of Dean Evason and the arrival of new coach John Hynes. An injury and the Wild’s collective poor performance didn’t help.
Kaapo Kakko did not have a productive season like Zegras, but with 40 points, including 18 goals, in 82 games, we finally thought this second overall pick was very disappointing in his first three seasons on the verge of taking off. It fell flat again this year. He had only three points, including two goals, in twenty games on his record before twisting his leg last week. His season isn’t over, but we won’t see him again anytime soon.
That brings us to Cole Caufield. Twenty-six goals, including 19 tied for power, in 46 games last year. He hasn’t looked bad statistically this season with 19 points in 24 games, second in team scoring behind Nick Suzuki, but he’s scored just seven goals, including three at five-on-five, and many of his aids were secondary. Caufield, the 15th overall pick, has an impact on the power play and overtime, but he’ll need to do more if he doesn’t want to eventually be considered an offensive specialist.
Other players drafted in the top 20 in 2019 include Alex Turcotte (5th, Los Angeles), Philip Broberg (8th Edmonton), Vasili Podkolzin (10th, Vancouver), Victor Soderstrom (11th, Arizona), Spencer Knight (13th, Florida ), Peyton Krebs (17th, Vegas), Lassi Thomson (19th, Ottawa) and Ville Heinola (20th, Winnipeg) still hope to hang on to the NHL.
Kirby Dach (3rd, Chicago) and Alex Newhook (16th, Colorado) were on a roll since their acquisition by the Canadian, but will spend the winter in rehabilitation to heal.
Concussions have delayed the Avalanche’s advancement of the fourth overall pick, defenseman Bowen Byram. He is finally healthy and the injury suffered by Cale Makar will allow him to play, and express himself, more. He played 25 minutes Saturday against the Ducks and scored two goals. Coach Jared Bednar rarely gave him 20 minutes or more per game before.
Defender Cam York, drafted one spot ahead of Caufield, was not entitled to any favors from his coach John Tortorella in Philadelphia; he had to play in the American League the two previous seasons. Without being a master in defense, he has great offensive skills, plays in the first pair with Travis Sanheim and now participates in the first wave in numerical superiority.
Moritz Seider, the sixth overall pick by Detroit, to the surprise of many, had a subpar season compared to his stellar rookie year in 2021-22, but he still had 42 points and played an average of 23 minutes per game. He’s producing at a 57-point pace this year and playing against the opposition’s top lines.
Seider would remain the second overall pick behind Hughes in a reconstituted draft. Who would be third? The jury is still out…
After starting Saturday’s game on the third line with Jake Evans and Tanner Pearson, Juraj Slafkovsky will get his chance to the right of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield on Monday night against the Seattle Kraken.
Slafkovsky had been the team’s best forward along with Alex Newhook during the team’s most recent trip, but coach Martin St-Louis probably wanted to send him a little message after a more tepid match upon returning from the team in Montreal, against the Panthers on Thursday.
The 19-year-old Slovakian had developed interesting chemistry with Caufield, but with Christian Dvorak as his center. The current combination could constitute CH’s first trio of the future.
A matchup against Shane Wright, the Kraken’s fourth overall pick, that most fans hoped would happen in Montreal, will have to wait, however. After an unsuccessful three-game trial (the coach was not generous with his time with 10:54, 9:55 and 8:34), Wright continued his apprenticeship in the American League, where he did well offensively with 14 points, including 8 goals, in 15 games.
