The rebound in growth in the Quebec economy in the first quarter augurs the first “signs of recovery” after ten consecutive months of contraction, in the opinion of economists in the banking sector.
According to the Institut de la Statistique du Québec, the real GDP of the Quebec economy increased by 3.6% on an annualized basis during the first three months of 2024, after the 0.4% decline recorded in the last quarter of 2023.
Also, this jump in Quebec’s GDP in the first quarter of 2024 is almost twice as high as the 1.7% rebound measured for the entire Canadian economy.
“After going through a period of major difficulties in 2023, with a contraction in real GDP for three consecutive quarters, the Quebec economy is finally returning to growth. The economic contraction phase that occurred from spring 2023 until the end of last year therefore appears to be over,” note economists Hélène Bégin and Maëlle Boulais-Préseault, at Mouvement Desjardins.
“Beyond the rebound in real GDP in the first quarter, the Quebec economy is sending out several positive signals. Consumer spending has rebounded strongly and the savings rate remains at a high level thanks to rapid growth in disposable personal income, report Desjardins economists.
“Despite the context of high inflation in recent years, the renegotiation of collective agreements and the desire of several companies to retain their employees are among the factors that fuel the growth of wages and, by extension, that of income. Also, the revival of the residential sector is excellent news, as is that of investments in machinery and equipment. »
At the National Bank, economist Daren King reports that “real GDP per capita (in Quebec) experienced an initial increase after seven quarters (21 months) of contraction. »
Consequently, he predicts for the coming months, “I continue to believe that Quebec’s GDP could prove resilient compared to the rest of Canada, in particular due to the lower level of debt of Quebec households, but also thanks to to their high savings rate which continues to increase. »
At Desjardins, economists Bégin and Boulais-Préseault remain reserved while waiting for the next interest rate drops.
“Despite the improvement in the economic context in Quebec, many businesses as well as several households are facing a difficult, even critical, financial situation,” they note in an analysis consulted by La Presse.
“The reduction in key interest rates which will continue in Canada this year and next year will help reduce the vulnerability of borrowers while solidifying the economic recovery already underway in Quebec. »
