Germany in 2045 – where it is growing and where it is shrinking dramatically

The population in Germany continues to grow, but only slowly in the coming years. In 2045, 85.5 million people will live in this country, which is around 800,000 more than in 2023, which corresponds to an increase of 0.9 percent.

The figure was determined by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR). “Germany’s population continues to grow – due to immigration from abroad,” says Peter Jakubowski, head of the Spatial and Urban Development Department at the BBSR.

“Many people will continue to come to Germany from many parts of the world for a variety of reasons,” Jakubowski continued. “Without immigration from abroad, Germany’s population would already be significantly lower in 2045 because the number of deaths will far exceed the number of births.”

However, growth of 800,000 citizens over a period of more than 20 years is extremely moderate compared to previous waves of immigration. In 2015 alone, the population rose by 0.9 percent to 82.2 million – after millions of people fled the civil war in Syria, exacerbated by Russia’s entry into the war in late summer 2015.

The second wave of immigration of war refugees from Russia-attacked Ukraine was in turn a major factor in population growth of 0.7 percent to 84.4 million in 2022.

Not only migration from abroad, but also internal migration is continuing to develop. This is shown by a closer look at the BBSR data for the individual districts and cities. “While economically strong cities and their surrounding areas as well as numerous rural regions, particularly in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, continue to grow, the population in structurally weak areas away from the metropolises continues to decline,” the experts from Bonn note.

What is striking is that the vast majority of districts with a shrinking population and correspondingly little immigration are in eastern Germany. “According to forecasts, the districts of Erzgebirgskreis (Saxony), Greiz (Thuringia) and Mansfeld-Südharz (Saxony-Anhalt) will lose more than a fifth of their population by 2045,” reports the BBSR. But parts of northern Hesse and eastern North Rhine-Westphalia are also losing residents.

In the east, only Berlin and the surrounding area, as well as Potsdam and Leipzig, are continuing to grow. Otherwise, people are mainly moving to the southwest of the republic, and there to the district of Ebersberg in Bavaria, to Freiburg im Breisgau.

The Bonn Institute’s figures are consistent with other long-term population forecasts, such as those from the Bertelsmann Foundation, which updated the data from the “Wegweiser Kommune” in April. This forecast assumes population growth of 0.6 percent by 2040, also with clear differences between west and east, north and south.

For Baden-Württemberg, the “Wegweiser” is assuming an increase of 4.6 percent, while in Saxony-Anhalt the Bertelsmann Foundation is expecting a population decline of 12.3 percent – a value almost identical to the BBSR data. Berlin and Hamburg are each growing by almost six percent, while Saarland is experiencing a single-digit decline.

Both the Bertelsmann Foundation and the BBSR prepare their forecasts based on long-term demographic developments within Germany. These include external and internal migration as well as birth rates and mortality.

The experts do not create any scenarios for external shocks such as major economic crises at home or abroad or a complete occupation of Ukraine by Russia as a further cause of flight.

The BBSR also evaluated the future age structure in the various regions and here too came to a rather challenging result for the East. Across Germany, the number of people of retirement age, i.e. 67-year-olds and older, increased by 13.6 percent to 2.2 million.

“In regions with a sharp decline in population numbers, however, the average age will rise at an above-average rate,” says the BBSR. “In 2045, people in the districts of Vorpommern-Rügen (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania), Mansfeld-Südharz (Saxony-Anhalt), Altenburger Land (Thuringia), Greiz (Thuringia) and Spree-Neiße (Brandenburg) will be on average older than 50 years old.”

In contrast, university cities such as Frankfurt/Main, Munich and Heidelberg remain particularly “young”. The population there remains on average younger than 41 years old. Leipzig has the lowest average age in the eastern German states with a value of 42 years, alongside Berlin with a value of 42.

Experts expect higher birth rates and thus a fifth more children and young people than today for Munich, Landshut and Freiburg. “This is because the proportion of younger women in the population here is above average,” the BBSR said in a statement. “For Berlin and Leipzig, the BBSR expects an increase of almost a fifth.”

Urban researcher Jakubowski sees “sometimes completely contradictory challenges arising for the regions from demographic change”. In the structurally strong cities and districts with ongoing population growth, “it will be primarily about satisfying a growing demand for housing and social services such as education, childcare, health care or nursing care.”

The situation is different in the shrinking regions: “For actors in the structurally weaker cities and districts with ongoing population losses, it is becoming increasingly challenging to ensure diverse and efficient public services as well as attractive labor and housing markets – in other words, equal living conditions.”