Does Shea Weber deserve to be inducted into the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility? Will Pavel Datsyuk be blocked by the “Russian factor”? Will the doors of the Temple finally open to Alexander Mogilny?

We will know the answers to these questions this Tuesday, when the 18 members of the Hockey Hall of Fame selection committee meet in Toronto. Sometime in the afternoon, once the committee’s deliberations are complete, the lucky few will receive the long-awaited call from Lanny McDonald, President of the Hall of Fame. This call is the white smoke of hockey. This is what confirms that a player goes from simple retired to immortal.

A look at the main candidates, starting with those in their first year of eligibility.

Few forwards of his generation were admitted without playing 1,000 games in the NHL. Paul Kariya, Pavel Bure and Eric Lindros made it, but they were all slowed by injuries. Datsyuk did not reach the magic number in particular because he arrived in the NHL late (at age 23) and because the labor conflicts of 2004 and 2012 potentially cost him 116 games. Additionally, at age 38, he returned to Russia to pursue his career. But his three Selke Trophies in a row suggest that he was, at his peak, the best defensive forward on the circuit. During his 14 seasons in the NHL, his rating of 249 was a record among forwards. Unless committee members are reluctant to elect a Russian for political reasons, Datsyuk is the favorite on paper among first-year players.

Like Datsyuk, Weber also hasn’t reached the usual volume required of players elected, in terms of games and points. His 224 goals, on the other hand, are worthy of the Hall of Fame. Except that Weber has distinguished himself more in less quantifiable aspects like defensive play and leadership. It’s no coincidence that he was captain of both teams he played for in the NHL, the Nashville Predators and the Canadiens. He has also long been considered one of the toughest defensemen to play against. In the absence of a Stanley Cup, Weber has won two Olympic titles, both times as a pillar of Team Canada. He has never won a Norris Trophy, but has finished second twice; both times, he was less than 1% behind the winner in the voting. His former GM David Poile is on the selection committee. If anyone can sell his candidacy, it’s him. As long as he quickly moves on from the time he traded it…

There were questions about the longevity of Datsyuk and Weber. With Marleau, the opposite problem arises: can a player be admitted on the basis of an extraordinary volume of games played? His record of 1,779 games played will indeed be hard to ignore, but he never even came close to being considered among the best of his era at his position. Having beaten the legendary Gordie Howe in games played could well earn him a bust, one day, in Toronto. But not in Year 1.

Her three Olympic titles, including two as an impact player, should be enough to get her elected, but she’s been waiting 10 years for her turn. The “general contribution to hockey as a sport” criterion may not extend to the media sphere, but her appearances on the main panel of Hockey Night in Canada in recent years add to her legacy.

Statistically, he presents interesting arguments. His average of 0.48 goals per game is 19th in history among players who have played more than 800 games. Part of that haul came during his epic 76-goal season in 1992-93. The fact that he is a winner of the Triple Crown of hockey (Stanley Cup, Olympic Games, World Championship) also militates in his favor. The other punchline argument is not quantifiable, but he became, in 1989, the first Soviet player to defect to play in the NHL. His exclusion from the Temple so far is clearly not linked to political reasons, since he has been eligible for election since 2009, well before Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

A Stanley Cup as captain. One of the best defensive forwards of his era. Impressive offensive statistics. Three appearances in the Stanley Cup final. It’s hard to see what’s blocking Brind’Amour, but he’s been waiting his turn since 2013. His detractors will say that his differential is not worthy of the best defensive attackers, but they should be reminded that he spent a good part of his career within the very unstable Carolina Hurricanes. Brind’Amour also ranks third in history for faceoffs (they have been compiled since 1997) with a success rate of 58.7%. Only Yanic Perreault and Joe Nieuwendyk are ahead of him.

To be eligible, a player must have been inactive for three years. His contractual status doesn’t matter; Chris Pronger still had an NHL contract when he was elected, a similar situation to Shea Weber this year. A candidate must first be presented by one of the 18 members of the selection committee. It must then receive 75% of the votes, or 14 votes among the 18 members. Each year, a maximum of four male players, two female players and two builders may be admitted.