In case you missed it, JP Morgan has adjusted their prediction for the first FOMC rate cut from July to November. This change comes after a strong jobs report on Friday, prompting analysts at the bank to push back their forecast. Instead of a rate cut in July, JP Morgan now anticipates the first ease in November.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set for this week, taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday. The statement is expected at 2pm US Eastern time, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference half an hour later.
JP Morgan’s shift in forecast is based on the recent momentum in job growth, with analysts suggesting that it may take a few more employment reports before the conditions are met for a rate cut. The bank now predicts a dovish stance from Federal Reserve Chair Powell after the FOMC statement this week.
Looking ahead, JP Morgan foresees a quarterly cadence of rate cuts next year, with four more cuts expected in 2025. These cuts are projected to occur in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4, following the initial ease in November.
Overall, the adjustment in JP Morgan’s forecast reflects the evolving economic conditions and the potential impact on Federal Reserve policy decisions in the coming months. Stay tuned for updates as the FOMC meeting unfolds and new data becomes available.