(Paris) Will the world produce more oil than it demands? The International Energy Agency expects a “major surplus” in oil markets by 2030, with the cumulative effect of rising production and the transition to clean energy moderating demand .
Global demand is expected to stabilize at 106 million barrels per day towards the end of the decade, while global supply capacity could reach 114 million barrels, the IEA estimated in its annual oil report on Wednesday.
This would result in a “staggering” surplus of 8 million barrels per day for which markets should prepare, the IEA estimates.
“As the pandemic rebound falters, the clean energy transition advances, and the structure of China’s economy evolves, global oil demand growth is slowing and is expected to peak by 2030.” , said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, quoted in a press release.
In this “major oversupply” environment, “oil companies may want to ensure their strategies and business plans are prepared for the ongoing changes,” he added.
The IEA’s annual report on oil markets comes a few days after the decision by the cartel of oil exporters and its allies gathered in OPEC to gradually lift its production cuts of black gold, thus giving way to this policy of reducing supply started at the end of 2022 to support prices.
In its report, “based on current policies and market trends”, the IEA first notes that “strong demand from fast-growing Asian economies” such as India and China, “as well that aviation and petrochemical sectors” are expected to continue to drive oil consumption “in the years to come.”
The OECD energy agency nevertheless emphasizes that “these gains will be increasingly offset” by factors such as “increased sales of electric cars, improved energy efficiency of conventional vehicles (thermal , Editor’s note), the decline in the use of oil for electricity production in the Middle East”. All of this data should help limit growth in demand to 4% by 2030, to 106 million barrels per day, compared to 102 million in 2023.
In particular, the IEA notes, “oil demand in advanced economies is projected to continue its decades-long decline, from nearly 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to less than 43 million barrels per day in 2030,” its lowest level since 1991, excluding the period of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Around the world, governments and companies are accelerating investments in clean energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, which heat the planet.
At the same time, the IEA expects global oil production to increase, driven by non-OPEC producers, notably the United States. Global supply would thus exceed forecast demand from 2025, which would generate a surplus of 8 million barrels towards the end of the decade, “levels never seen outside of the COVID-19 crisis”.
“Such surplus production capacity could pave the way for a lower oil price environment, raising difficult challenges” for the U.S. shale industry and the OPEC bloc led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to the report.
In its monthly oil report, which explores shorter-term trends, the Energy Agency has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2024 slightly downward, now putting it at 960 000 daily barrels, having already lowered its forecast last month to 1.1 million barrels. And for 2025, the IEA expects “the gloomy oil outlook” to continue, with “a modest increase of 1 million barrels per day,” below its previous estimate of growth of 1 million barrels per day. .2 million.
