(Paris) Fractures on the right, negotiations on the left, extreme right in force: the earthquake caused in France by the dissolution of the Assembly continues to cause tremors on Thursday, 17 days before legislative elections which could notably affect the country’s diplomatic course.
After its debacle in the European elections on Sunday, President Emmanuel Macron’s camp is trying to present the vote of June 30 and July 7 as a “social choice” between the “progressive” bloc that he would embody and the “extremes” on the left and right which “fuels division”, said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Thursday morning on France Inter radio.
“We are in a difficult moment, we have to go and convince the French, but I am not the type to give up,” he then declared in Boulogne-sur-Mer for his first campaign trip.
Since the electoral triumph of the National Rally (RN, far right), political recomposition has accelerated rapidly in the country, sometimes turning into chaos.
And the poker move of dissolution attempted by Emmanuel Macron has, it seems, had no positive effect on his popularity: only 24% of French people say they “trust” the president, the lowest since the start of his second term in 2022, according to a poll carried out in the days following this resounding decision.
Since this dramatic turn of events, gaping fractures have opened within the right-wing opposition. Disowned by his troops for having proposed an unprecedented alliance with the RN, Eric Ciotti was ousted on Wednesday from the head of the main conservative party, the Republicans (LR), but clings to his post.
On Wednesday, he went so far as to lock the entrances to the party’s headquarters to prevent his opponents from entering. He went there on Thursday, refusing to lay down his arms. “I am the party president, I go to my office, that’s all,” he declared, describing his exclusion as a “coup de force.” His opponents intend to “legitimise before the courts” the ouster of their former leader.
The crisis also dislocated the small far-right Reconquest party. Its head of the European list, Marion Maréchal, was excluded after calling to vote for the RN of her aunt Marine Le Pen, which confirms its dynamic after achieving the best score in its history on Sunday (31.3%).
The party, engaged for several years in a strategy of demonization, is also leading the polls for the legislative elections, even if its possible arrival in power arouses the concern of part of the country. Demonstrations against the far right are planned this weekend, at the call of unions and associations.
On the left, discussions on an alliance in the legislative elections seem to be on the verge of success after some fits and starts.
Overcoming their divisions, La France insoumise (LFI, radical left), the Socialist Party, the Ecologists and the Communist Party (PCF) are trying to come to an agreement to present a single candidate in almost all of the 577 constituencies under the banner “Front popular”, taking the name of a coalition victoriously formed in France in 1936.
Tensions arose on Thursday, but they seem to be dissipating. “We are going to land, there is real progress,” a socialist negotiator explained to AFP early in the afternoon.
However, there remains the flammable debate on the identity of the person who would become prime minister in the event of a victory for the left.
Former presidential candidate, LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said he was “capable” of leading the government, but he is not unanimous among some of his left-wing partners, who criticize him in particular for statements ambiguous on anti-Semitism since the October 7 attacks in Israel and its reservations about support for Ukraine.
LFI like the RN are calling for profound changes in French diplomacy.
The far-right party, accused of being close to Russia, is reluctant about aid to Ukraine. LFI calls for leaving the integrated command of NATO, denouncing a systematic alignment with the United States.
Despite these uncertainties, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he was convinced on Thursday that France would remain a “strong and important” ally, whatever its next government.