(Paris) Fractures on the right, tensions on the left, extreme right in force: the earthquake caused in France by the dissolution of the Assembly continues to cause tremors on Thursday, 17 days before the legislative elections which could notably affect the diplomatic course of the country.
After its debacle in the European elections on Sunday, President Emmanuel Macron’s camp is trying to present the vote of June 30 and July 7 as a “social choice” between the “progressive” bloc that he would embody and the “extremes” on the left and right which “fuels division”, said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Thursday on France Inter radio.
Since the electoral triumph of the National Rally (RN, far right) and the poker move of dissolution attempted by Emmanuel Macron, the political recomposition has accelerated with great strides, sometimes turning into chaos.
Gaping fractures have opened within the right-wing opposition. Disowned by his troops for having proposed an unprecedented alliance with the RN, Eric Ciotti was ousted on Wednesday from the head of the main conservative party, the Republicans (LR), but clings to his post.
On Wednesday, he went so far as to lock the access to the HQ of this formation to deny access to his opponents. He went there on Thursday, refusing to lay down his arms. “I’m president of the party, I go to my office, that’s all,” he said, calling his exclusion a “forceful coup.”
The crisis also dislocated the small far-right Reconquest party, which had nevertheless elected its first MEPs on Sunday. Her head of the European list, Marion Maréchal, was excluded after calling to vote for the RN of her aunt Marine Le Pen, who confirms her dynamic after achieving the best score in her history on Sunday (31.3%).
The party, engaged for several years in a strategy of demonization, is also leading the polls for the legislative elections, even if its possible arrival in power arouses the concern of part of the population. Demonstrations against the far right are planned in the country this weekend, called by unions and associations.
On the left, discussions on an alliance in the legislative elections are slipping after a promising start.
Overcoming their divisions, La France insoumise (LFI, radical left), the Socialist Party, the Ecologists and the Communist Party (PCF) had first managed to agree to share almost all of the 577 constituencies under the banner “ Popular Front”, taking the name of a coalition victoriously formed in France in 1936.
But tensions emerged on Thursday. By midday, a socialist official was saying that the meeting on the programme was “suspended” until the discussion on the distribution of constituencies “is unblocked”.
There also remains the flammable debate over the identity of who would become prime minister in the event of a victory for the left.
A former presidential candidate, LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has said he is “capable” of leading the government, but he is not unanimous among some of his left-wing partners, who criticize him in particular for ambiguous statements on anti-Semitism since the attacks of October 7 in Israel and his reservations about supporting Ukraine.
In fact, both LFI and the RN are calling for profound changes in French diplomacy.
The far-right party, accused of being close to Russia, is reluctant about aid to Ukraine. LFI calls for leaving the integrated command of NATO, denouncing a systematic alignment with the United States.
Despite these uncertainties, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he was convinced on Thursday that France would remain a “strong and important” ally, whatever its next government. “Experience proves that NATO allies have always managed to stay united,” he said.