Majority of Germans want new military conscription

Next Wednesday, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) will present his plans for a new form of military service. This will also include “compulsory components,” the Social Democrat announced in the Bundestag. While the governing parties SPD, Greens and FDP are critical of compulsory service, it is met with approval by the majority of German citizens.

60 percent of those surveyed by the market research institute YouGov on behalf of WELT AM SONNTAG supported the introduction of general conscription “completely” (28 percent) or “somewhat” (32 percent). 32 percent rejected it – 18 percent “somewhat” and 14 percent “completely”. Eight percent did not provide any information. Conscription was suspended in 2011. However, the Bundeswehr is not managing to recruit enough new recruits on the labor market. The Defense Ministry now expects that current NATO plans will “in the foreseeable future” require an increase in the German personnel target from 203,000 to “tend to be well over 272,000 soldiers,” as “Spiegel” reports.

According to the representative opinion poll, for which 2,295 German citizens were questioned between May 31 and June 5, the most supporters of a return to compulsory military service are among voters of the Union parties (72 percent). This is followed by voters of the SPD (66 percent), the AfD (64 percent) and the FDP (62 percent). Support for military service is lower among Green voters, but still finds a majority (48 to 41). Only supporters of the Left Party reject it, with 43 to 49 percent.

While the majority of the 18- to 29-year-olds affected by the requirement are against it (43 to 47 percent), the approval rate increases with age. The majority of 30- to 39-year-olds are already in favor (49 to 40), while among those over 70, 77 percent are in favor and 17 percent are against it.

Compulsory military service is more strongly supported by men (64 percent) than by women (54), and is supported more by citizens with low levels of education (67) than by those with medium or high levels (51 each). Supporters are more numerous in rural areas (61 percent) than in cities (56 percent). The differences between the West (60 percent in favor) and the East (57 percent in favor) are marginal.

Pistorius assumes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not “stop at the borders of Ukraine” but is working towards another conflict with his war economy. “Russia is also a threat to Georgia, Moldova and ultimately to NATO,” said the Defense Minister, who therefore wants to make the Bundeswehr “ready for war by 2029.”

Almost half of German citizens also see Germany as being under military threat at present. 49 percent believe that the country is under a strong (eleven percent) or somewhat threatened (38 percent) by foreign military forces. 40 percent see little (30 percent) or no threat at all (ten percent). Eleven percent have no opinion on the matter.

According to the survey, the majority of voters who feel threatened are those of the CDU/CSU (58 to 36 percent). This is followed by SPD supporters (52 to 40), FDP (51 to 40) and AfD (47 to 42). The ratio is even among Green (45 to 44) and Left Party voters (46 to 46). 50 percent of men see Germany as being under military threat, 45 percent do not. Among women, the ratio is 48 to 37 percent.

In the age groups, the majority of 18 to 29 year olds (38 to 47 percent) and 30 to 39 year olds (42 to 49) do not feel threatened by military means, while the majority of those over 40 do. While there is a majority perception of threat in the west, the assessment in the east of Germany is divided at 45 to 45 percent. Citizens in rural areas feel more threatened (54 percent) than those in cities (46 percent).

According to internal NATO assessments, Russia is currently investing around 40 percent of its budget in the war economy. The assessments of the intelligence services of the 32 member states as to when Putin’s military would be able to conduct any kind of operation against the alliance, despite the high losses in Ukraine, vary between three and seven years. Whether this happens depends on various factors, the alliance says: NATO’s ability and willingness to defend itself, the outcome of the Ukraine war and the question of whether an attack on the West would help Putin maintain power in his own country.

For the representative survey, YouGov interviewed 2,295 eligible voters aged 18 and over from May 31 to June 5. The margin of error is between 0.89 and 2.05 percentage points.