The course spoil the losses of this year on the stock markets, coupled with some bad news, many investors ‘ mood. The Dax share index has lost since the beginning of the year to 16 percent, the Dow Jones by 5 per cent. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that large institutional investors have voted anything other than positive. On the contrary, they are even extremely pessimistic setting, in financial jargon, “bearish”, currently seems to be very close. This shows the monthly survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch among the 243 Fund managers, which manage combined assets of 694 billion dollars.
Kerstin Papon
editor in the economy.
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Thus, only 9 percent of these investors currently expect that it will come out in 2019 to a recession in the world – 2 percentage points less than in November. Nevertheless, more than half of the survey participants believe that the growth of the world will weaken the economy in the coming twelve months. This is the worst Outlook since October 2008, say the analysts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. At the same time, the inflation expectations of the surveyed Fund managers have fallen significantly.
And how will this be reflected in the securities accounts of the Fund Manager? These investors urge apparently heavily in debt. Because here is the largest monthly movement (rotation), which had been made in the survey ever, showed it is more. The share of bonds in the Portfolios of respondents had most recently risen by 23 percentage points to a weight of a net 35 per cent; this value is the proportion of pessimists exceeds the the optimists. This was the highest value since the vote of the British people to the withdrawal of Britain from the EU, short-Brexit called, in June 2016. The share of cash and cash equivalents in the portfolio has increased only slightly, from 4.7 in the previous month, to 4.8 percent.
emerging market stocks have become more interesting
The percentage of shares, in turn, is the lowest value within a period of two years has recently fallen by 15 percentage points to a Preponderance of 16 percent. Looking more closely at the equities division, shows that so far as the attractive force installations in the United States are now in demand significantly less. The share of American equities fell in the portfolio by 8 percentage points to a prevalence of 6 percent. A similar strong decrease is shown also for Europe. Here, however, this means that this Region of the surveyed Fund managers will now be weighted in the average under – the first Time was two years. In view of the large uncertainties of the Brexit are shares in particular, from the UK asked, with a weight of a net 39 percent as little, as rarely before.
the case For respondents significantly more interesting shares from emerging countries have become. A Overweight from a net 18 percent of Fund managers in this group of investors currently in the Region of first choice. And for the first time since January, the purchase of large technology is no longer the most popular trade, but the strategy to bet on a rising Dollar. The latest survey also reveals the worst profit Outlook for the company within a decade. Net almost half of Fund managers expected that the profits will worsen in the coming year. A similar proportion of respondents believe that many companies are currently indebted to. This is also a new maximum value.
one of the biggest market risks a trade war, for the seventeenth Time, for a good third of the investors. Connect with nearly a fifth of a more restrictive monetary policy. The investors were in an extremely negative mood are very close, says Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. All eyes rested on the American Central Bank, the Fed.
