Meloni noticeably quiet, dispute over Costa – That’s why von der Leyen has to wait

Everything seems to be clear when the 27 European heads of state and government meet in Brussels on Monday evening. At a dinner in the European building on Rue de la Loi, they want to clarify the question of who should lead the EU in the future. There is fried pollock with artichokes. Three top positions are up for grabs. Three names are being discussed. Nobody expects any surprises.

In the end, things turned out differently. Around midnight, Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, entered the foyer of the building. “We had a good discussion,” he said. “But there will be no decision this evening.” A decision is not expected until next week. The EU’s top politicians will then meet again for a summit in Brussels.

At least they were able to largely agree on one thing on Monday: that Ursula von der Leyen should continue to lead the EU Commission. That’s what diplomats say. The German ran as the top candidate of the Christian Democratic EPP in the European elections, with the slogan “Ursula 2024”. Now, it is said, her chances of a second term in office are very good.

Nevertheless, the German cannot yet be completely sure. Especially since a woman whose support she is hoping for was said to have been unusually quiet in the meeting room on Monday: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Some insiders interpret this as doubts about von der Leyen.

But Meloni’s silence is not the reason for the lack of agreement. It is probably due to a demand from the EPP members in the room. After the European elections, the party is by far the strongest political force in Brussels. And it now wants to exploit this. The EPP camp is suddenly laying claim to the office of EU Council President, as participants in the negotiations say. The Christian Democrats have demanded that it should not be awarded for five years immediately, as is usual, but only for two and a half.

The post was actually supposed to go to former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, a socialist. It is an important job. The Council President chairs the EU summits and has to find compromises when everything seems to be at a standstill in the middle of the night. For the past five years, this was the job of Michel, a Belgian. Costa is a politician who is respected across all party lines. Nevertheless, the conservatives only want to nominate him for a limited period of time.

The Social Democrats, the second strongest party after the European elections, reject this. They want to appoint the Council President for the next five years. At the summit, the heads of state and government repeatedly meet in small groups, speaking in pairs, fours, sixes, but they fail to achieve a breakthrough.

This is also the case with the third job that will be discussed on Monday. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, a liberal, is to become the EU’s new chief diplomat. Until now, this role has been filled by the Spaniard Josep Borrell. Kallas caused a stir in March of last year. At the time, she pushed forward a bold plan: the delivery of one million grenades to Ukraine. The plan failed, but the woman had made a name for herself as a hardliner against Russia. But without the other two people, nothing can be promised to Kallas at the summit either.

Von der Leyen, Costa and Kallas. A conservative from the west, a leftist from the south, a liberal who can credibly represent Europe’s north and east. Two women, one man. The plan seems well thought out; it would have ensured the necessary balance in the EU. Party affiliation, geography and gender, everything is taken into account. Changing – or even replacing – this trio will be difficult.

But the truth is that all three candidates have a shortcoming. Two of them are under investigation. In von der Leyen’s case, it’s about text messages. At the beginning of 2021, it is suspected that she wrote to the head of the American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer on her cell phone and ordered 1.8 billion vaccine doses on her own initiative – possibly at an inflated price. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating the matter. What is explosive is that, according to the EU Commission, the text messages have disappeared.

And Costa is being investigated in Portugal. The suspicion here is corruption. The awarding of mining licenses for lithium and the production of hydrogen may not have been above board. Costa resigned from his post as Prime Minister last November due to these allegations.

“I remember António Costa as a good colleague,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the summit in Brussels. He is definitely competent. “But we also need to clarify the legal context,” added Tusk. “You know what I mean.”

This is nothing new. The former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was also once investigated. The allegations revolved around tax advantages for Amazon that were so generous that some considered them illegal state aid. Now there is renewed suspicion that the powerful in Brussels could be involved in dubious deals. It would not be a good start for five more years of Ursula.

Some heads of state and government have political concerns about Kallas, the Estonian Prime Minister. They believe that as the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kallas could focus too much on the war in Ukraine and neglect other regions of the world. For example, the countries of North Africa, which are supposed to help Brussels limit migration to Europe.

What happens next? If von der Leyen is nominated as Commission President at the summit next week, she will have to face a vote in the EU Parliament in mid-July. She needs the support of 361 of the 720 members. Conservatives, Social Democrats and Liberals have almost 400 seats. But there are likely to be dissenters. That is why von der Leyen will probably have to rely on the Greens – or the right.

One of them is Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. That is why von der Leyen is seeking the Italian’s support. According to reports from the Commission, she is currently even holding back an official report criticising Italy for restricting press freedom, out of fear that she could lose Rome’s favour.

The report was actually supposed to be published at the beginning of July. Now it will probably only be published after the vote in the EU Parliament on von der Leyen’s second term in office. The Commission does not want to officially comment on the reasons for the later publication. Do von der Leyen’s political considerations play a role? In long, convoluted answers, spokespeople for the Brussels authority neither confirm nor deny this.