A prominent political analyst changed its assessment on the Pennsylvania Senate race, suggesting that Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s chances for re-election are diminishing. The Cook Political Report revealed two changes in ratings with only two weeks left until Election Day, highlighting increased competitiveness in both Pennsylvania and Nebraska. In Pennsylvania, the contest between incumbent Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is now considered a “Toss Up” by the analyst, a shift from the previous rating of “Lean Democrat.”
The Cook Political Report pointed out that McCormick has been successful in solidifying the GOP base and gaining ground in the western part of the state, contributing to the change in rating. Although Casey holds a slight lead over McCormick in public polls, both Democratic and Republican internal surveys suggest that the race is very close. Casey’s Senate race is now categorized alongside races in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
The adjustment in ratings coincides with the tight presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. Given the rarity of split-ticket voting, the outcome of the presidential election is likely to influence the Senate race as well.
In a recent poll conducted by the New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College, Casey led McCormick among likely voters by a margin of 48% to 44%. The survey, which included 857 Pennsylvania voters, was conducted from October 7 to October 10, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
On the other hand, in Nebraska, the ratings for Sen. Deb Fischer’s re-election campaign were adjusted to reflect a tightening race. Independent candidate Dan Osborn, a union leader and mechanic, has gained unexpected popularity in the race, posing a challenge to Fischer, who is endorsed by Trump. Despite Osborn’s rise, analysts still believe that the Republican stronghold in the state and attacks on Democratic efforts to support Osborn covertly will help Fischer secure victory.
Overall, the changes in ratings indicate the shifting dynamics in key Senate races as the election approaches. The battle for control of the Senate remains crucial, with the outcome likely to be influenced by the results of the presidential race. Stay tuned for more updates on the 2024 campaign trail for exclusive interviews and coverage from our Fox News Digital election hub.
