Since January, discussions around pension reform have resembled an endless tunnel from which no one seems to emerge unscathed. In the executive, it is the concern in the face of weeks of examination of the text under high tension. In the National Assembly, the deputies thus failed to agree on a vote in favor of the bill, while the Senate, for its part, validated the text. Now all the attention is on Parliament, where the pension reform could be voted on this week. In many ranks, another form of fear is beginning to rise with the prospect of seeing Marine Le Pen and the National Rally emerge victorious from this crisis.
Since the start of the debates around the pension reform, the National Rally has remained on the sidelines in the hemicycle watching its opponents discuss the text at length. On the latest images, Marine Le Pen is thus often shown in withdrawal, calm and with her arms crossed, without intervening vehemently, or entering into conflict with other deputies. It was enough for members of the majority and other opposition actors to worry about such behavior by imagining the National Rally coming out with the honors of heated debates.
Thus, the 88 elected members of the National Rally tabled “only” two hundred amendments, i.e. half as many as the presidential party, in order to demand modifications within the text. At the microphone of France Inter, Marine Le Pen even seemed particularly serene at the idea of seeing the pension reform voted by affirming that she would be defeated at the time of her election. Thomas Ménagé, RN deputy for Loiret, also added, projecting himself for the 2027 presidential election, that “retirement at 64 will be a strong argument for the future, especially for the battle of 2027”.
Faced with this prospect, elected officials from the majority expect to see the National Rally emerge victorious from this period of crisis, as reported by 20 Minutes . A Macronist deputy notably admitted that “everyone [wondered] how to do so that it was not Le Pen the next time around”, even evoking a “democracy […] sick”.
The same deputy hastened to add that the situation was “on a slippery slope”, where “every year, the RN cringes a little more”. Another elected MoDem, meanwhile, spoke of the feeling of “touching the bottom of the pool” and fearing a context that would be “blessed bread for Marine Le Pen”.
Gradually, it is the whole strategy of normalization of the National Rally, which ends up alerting the majority and the opposition. As recent polls show, Marine Le Pen appears to be at the top of the political figures capable of best embodying opposition to the reform. According to the IFOP, it is thus the National Rally which comes first with 25% of those polled.
Behind him, the Nupes harvest 23% while the Republicans must be satisfied with 9%. A favorable opinion from the French which perplexes the majority in the face of the lack of commitment of the National Rally in the demonstrations on retirement at 60 in recent years. It remains to be seen whether the prospect of a forced passage with recourse to 49.3 will also create a rise in the National Rally in the coming weeks.
