While the pension reform is to be implemented from September 1, its effects have already been observed by INSEE, which has revised upwards its growth forecasts for the working population in France. Thus, a peak would be reached in 2036 with 31.2 million assets, as reported by our colleagues at Capital. Even if these data remain, for the moment, forecasts, they make it possible to map the future to which we must expect. Decryption.
The pension reform will have “influences on the activity behavior of seniors on the labor market”, as mentioned by Yves Jauneau, head of the synthesis and economic situation of the labor market division of INSEE. Compared to INSEE projections, established in 2022, we would therefore be heading for an active population “increased by around 600,000 by 2070”. The active population could therefore reach a peak of 31.2 million in 2036 (compared to 30.1 million in 2021) and then decrease and reach 29.8 million from 2070.
From 2070, the activity rate of 55-69 year olds would thus be raised by 4.5 points with a more marked effect for 60-64 year olds and an increase of 10.9 points. INSEE has not yet given any estimate of the expected impact on employment and unemployment, which will directly depend on the situation to come in the coming years. At the present time, these projections are thus based on assumptions, particularly demographic, where the issue of net migration will be decisive.
