Russia is increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to address gaps in its military capabilities that have been exposed by the invasion of Ukraine, experts say. Samuel Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, explained that Russian futurists and technologists are envisioning a shift towards reducing human involvement in military operations. Despite the manpower-intensive nature of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia is still looking towards a future with less human intervention.
Bendett’s research indicates that Russia’s interest in AI could lead to more risk-taking as they strive to catch up with Western powers. The integration of AI into their nuclear command is a top priority for Russia, with a focus on using AI for data analysis, situational awareness, and potentially decision-making in deploying nuclear weapons. This could help in scenarios where political leadership is incapacitated, allowing for crucial decisions to be made automatically.
While Russia’s intentions align with other major powers in terms of AI development, they may face challenges in adopting these systems due to Western sanctions and export controls. Factors such as the exodus of tech personnel, lack of access to parts and data, and economic impacts from sanctions could hinder Russia’s AI ambitions. To overcome these obstacles, Russia may turn to China, their close ally, to bridge the gaps in development.
Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst, emphasized that AI is a top priority for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who sees it as a key to maintaining sovereignty and global influence. Putin recognizes the significance of AI in shaping the future and has expressed concerns about Western dominance in this field. He views AI as a technology that, if not properly managed, could pose significant dangers, similar to nuclear weapons.
Both Bendett and Koffler acknowledge the challenges in assessing Russia’s progress with AI due to limited access to reliable information. The reliance on statements from the Russian government, which may be exaggerated, makes it difficult to determine the true extent of Russia’s advancements in AI technology. Despite these hurdles, the pursuit of AI remains a central focus for Russia as they aim to stay competitive on the global stage.
