In the 2024 European elections, the citizens of the 27 EU member states will set the course for the future of the EU. 720 seats in the European Parliament are up for election. The members there will decide on EU laws and the composition of the EU Commission.
The election will be held between 6 and 9 June. The Netherlands will be the first country to vote on Thursday, followed by Ireland on Friday. In the Czech Republic, voting is possible on Friday and Saturday, in Italy on Saturday and Sunday. Latvia, Malta and Slovakia will vote on Saturday, and all other EU member states, including Germany, will vote on Sunday. However, earlier voting is also possible in this country by postal vote.
In Germany, the bourgeois camp is in the lead in the polls and in the Europe-wide trend. CDU/CSU could become by far the strongest force on Sunday, with SPD and AfD taking second and third place. In other EU countries, however, citizens’ voting intentions are different – you can read how exactly this will happen below for the large EU countries France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
France will have 81 representatives in the new European Parliament – only Germany will have more representatives, with 96. In the polls, the Rassemblement National (RN) led by party leader and top candidate Jordan Bardella is clearly in the lead. In a survey conducted by the Ifop opinion research institute from May 30 to June 3, the RN received 33.5 percent of the vote. In the European Parliament, the RN is part of the “Identity and Democracy” group with other right-wing parties, which the AfD also belonged to until it was thrown out.
President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance list is at 15.5 percent. It is part of the liberal Renew Europe (RE) group in the European Parliament. The Socialists (S
The left-wing party “La France insoumise” of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (part of the left-wing GUE/NGL group) is at 7.5 percent, the Républicains (EPP group) are at seven percent. The “Liste des Écologistes” (Greens/EFA) and “Liste de Reconquête” led by the extreme right-wing politician Éric Zemmour could each expect seven percent of the vote. The Communists would miss the five percent hurdle applicable in France with 2.5 percent.
In Italy, which will have 76 MEPs, the ruling party Fratelli d’Italia of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is ahead in terms of voter popularity. In a survey conducted by the SWP opinion research institute on behalf of the TV channel “La 7” from May 20 to 24, the Fratelli received 27.3 percent of the vote. Meloni’s party is currently part of the conservative and EU-sceptic EKR group in the European Parliament, but is also being courted by the EPP and RN leader Marine Le Pen.
In second place is the Partido Democratico (S
The other places in the survey are taken by lists whose parties are currently members of different factions: the green-left alliance AVS with 4.6 percent, the liberal and pro-European list SUE with 4.2 percent and the liberal party Azione with four percent. The list of small left-wing parties PTD would fail to clear the four percent hurdle applicable in Italy with 2.5 percent.
Spain is electing 61 representatives to the EU Parliament. In a survey conducted by the opinion research institute “Data10” for the news website “OKDiario” from June 2 to 3, the Partido Popular (EPP) is in the lead with 34.4 percent, followed by the socialists of the PSOE of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez with 30.2 percent. It is part of the S
In fourth place is the electoral alliance AR, which is mainly made up of left-wing regional parties. AR, whose members are currently part of the Greens/EFA and GUE/NGL factions, could expect 4.4 percent of the vote. Podemos (GUE/NGL) is expected to receive 3.9 percent in the “Data10” survey, while the “Junts per Catalunya” alliance of Catalan independence supporters is expected to receive 2.5 percent. The list of liberal regional parties CEUS (Renew Europe) could once again send a member of parliament to Brussels with 1.6 percent, as there is no threshold in Spain.
As the largest and most populous country in Eastern Europe, Poland has become an important player in Brussels in recent years. With 53 MEPs, the country has significantly more representatives than the EU founding members Netherlands (31), Belgium (22) or Luxembourg (6).
Polls predict a neck-and-neck race between the new bourgeois government of Donald Tusk and the previous government led by the national-conservative PiS party. In a poll conducted by the Ipsos polling institute on behalf of the public broadcaster TVP from May 22 to 25, the PiS received 30 percent and the bourgeois coalition 29 percent. In the European Parliament, the PiS is the core of the ECR group. The members of the bourgeois coalition are members of the EPP group, the Greens/EFA and Renew Europe.
In the Ipsos survey, the right-wing extremist Konfederacja is at 13 percent. It is not yet represented in the European Parliament. The next places are taken by Trzecia Droga (Renew Europe and EPP) with nine percent and the left-wing alliance Lewica (S
Voter turnout in the 27 EU countries could be higher this time than in 2019. According to a survey by the Bertelsmann Foundation, around 60 percent of Europeans want to participate. That would be significantly more than in 2019, when voter turnout in the EU was 51 percent (Germany: 61 percent).
In the survey of 13,300 citizens in all 27 EU countries, a further 25 percent said they “maybe” would vote and 15 percent said they did not want to take part in the election.