The overwhelming victory of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) and its presidential candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, during the elections held in early June in Mexico, raises fears of an anti-democratic drift.
Analysts fear that the outgoing president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, will seek to use the considerable majorities obtained in Parliament by the party to pass constitutional reforms likely to dangerously strengthen executive power.
Ryan Berg of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a recent report that these reforms could be approved before Ms. Sheinbaum even takes office, which will occur in October, a month after the term of the newly elected representatives and senators begins.
This one-month period offers, according to Mr. Berg, a “perfect opportunity” for President López Obrador, who presented a 20-point reform in February that could not be adopted due to lack of a sufficient majority in Parliament.
Although the tally is not finalized, Morena leaders say they have secured the two-thirds “supermajority” required for constitutional amendments in the lower house and are close to that critical threshold in the Senate.
Among the proposed reforms is the idea of ensuring that judges of the Supreme Court are elected, a measure likely, according to Mr. Berg, to undermine the independence of the judicial system and expose magistrates to a form ” of political influence.”
The populist leader, who lost two presidential elections before coming to power in 2018, has long denounced the organization as a tool used by the country’s economic and political elite to curb his rise and plans to redistribute wealth.
At the beginning of the year, he attempted to drastically reduce the resources of the INE, sparking major popular demonstrations. The courts then invalidated the project.
Tony Payan, a Mexico specialist at Rice University in Texas, says he is convinced that President López Obrador will use the period during which he is still in power to try to pass the reforms he advocates and try by following to influence the direction of the country.
The big question, notes Mr. Payan, is what Claudia Sheinbaum will do now that she is elected.
“It’s hard to know what she wants. She was largely silent,” notes the academic.
During a press conference on Monday, relayed by Agence France-Presse, the new president limited herself to saying that there would be a “broad” discussion on the judicial reform defended by her predecessor, without compromising herself. on the subject.
Juan Pablo Micozzi, a political scientist based in Mexico, thinks that warnings about the country’s potential anti-democratic excesses are largely exaggerated.
It is unlikely, he points out, that the new president will unflinchingly comply with her predecessor’s demands after securing a resounding victory with nearly 60% of the vote.
Mr. López Obrador is a “political animal” and no one expected him to “quietly return to his land.” However, he will not be able to impose his diktats on Ms. Sheinbaum, notes Mr. Micozzi, who expects that she will be able to maneuver if necessary to prevent overly controversial reforms from being discussed and approved in Parliament during the month of transition.
The concerns of the financial markets, which are alarmed by the extent of Morena’s victory and the constitutional reform projects, have led to a marked devaluation of the peso likely to give the new president pause, adds the analyst.
“Let’s see which direction the country will go under his leadership. An abuse of power is theoretically possible, but I do not believe for a moment that we will witness the birth of a new tyranny, that the country will become a new Venezuela,” notes Mr. Micozzi.
Tony Payan, on the other hand, warns that the constitutional reforms under study risk taking Mexico back decades, to a time when the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) monopolized power election after election.
“AMLO wants to bring back this system for Morena. Who knows how long it will take to restore Mexican democracy if he succeeds? “, he warns.
