It has been four decades since a Republican won the state of New York in a presidential election, with President Ronald Reagan being the last to achieve this feat in 1984. However, a recent poll indicates that former President Trump is trailing President Biden by only single digits in New York, a state Biden won by 23 points in the previous election.
According to a Siena College poll released on Thursday, President Biden leads his Republican predecessor 47% to 39% among registered voters in New York State. This marks a slight decrease from Biden’s 10-point lead in April and 9-point lead in May. The poll also reveals that while Biden maintains strong support from Democrats, Trump is backed by 85% of Republicans and leads Biden 45% to 28% among independents.
There is a notable gender gap in the poll results, with men favoring Trump by a margin of 46% to 42% and women supporting Biden 51% to 33%. White voters are evenly split between the two candidates, while Biden holds a significant lead among non-White voters. However, Trump has garnered support from 29% of Black voters and 26% of Latino voters.
President Biden’s approval rating in the survey stands at 45% to 53%, with his favorability rating at 42% favorable and 53% unfavorable – the lowest ever among New Yorkers in Siena College polling. On the other hand, Trump’s favorability rating in his home state is even lower, with 37% favorable and 59% unfavorable.
The Siena College poll, conducted from June 12-17, involved 805 registered voters in New York state. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
These poll results indicate a narrowing gap between President Biden and former President Trump in the traditionally blue state of New York. As the 2024 election approaches, these numbers may shift further, highlighting the importance of voter sentiment and candidate strategies in the upcoming presidential race.