Despite Russia’s bloody attack on Ukraine, East Central Europeans feel safe today. They trust NATO as an organization led by the United States and therefore considered strong in Moscow. At the same time, many politicians, diplomats and experts in Eastern Europe are wondering what will happen to their countries if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November 2024.

Trump does not have a clear foreign policy profile. Some consider him to be pro-Russian or even controlled by Putin through compromising material. “A Trump victory in 2024 would undoubtedly lead to the end of American support for Ukraine,” warns Alexander Vindman, a Kyiv-born retired US lieutenant colonel and former director of the US National Security Council.

Others see Trump as a potential problem for the Kremlin because of his unpredictability, and speculate that he could be an advantage for Central and Eastern Europe. Trump is said to have recently stated that if he had been president of the United States in 2022, he would have bombed Moscow in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Many Eastern Europeans are dissatisfied with Biden and his indecision regarding Russia. On the other hand, Biden and the Democratic Party are predictable for them. Trump and his supporters, on the other hand, are a risk.

There is widespread fear in Eastern Europe that Russian respect for the Western defense alliance could wane after the next US presidential election. If NATO’s cohesion or Washington’s commitment weakens, the Central and Eastern European states could once again become fair game for Russia – as they were before joining NATO. The range of scenarios that could then occur has been clearly demonstrated by the recent fates of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

Eastern Europe has not become accustomed to a seemingly perfect world order over the past 30 years. Unlike in Western Europe, there is no magical belief in the political power of peacefulness. Eastern Europeans remember Tsarist and Soviet oppression and the Western betrayal of European values.

The collective perception of national security in Central and Eastern Europe is still shaped by the memory of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, the division of Europe in Yalta in 1945 and the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.

The logic of NATO as a defense alliance is based on trust, clarity and predictability. This may no longer be the case with Trump as US President. Worse still, a narrow defeat for Trump in the presidential election could trigger unrest or even instability in the USA. Washington will then no longer be able to pursue a decisive foreign policy. This would have serious consequences for the functioning of NATO.

Eastern Europeans have learned to expect the worst. Of course, Trump’s foreign policy behavior as president would continue to be determined by more than just the sometimes quirky ideas of his political camp. Even if the Trumpists recapture the White House, they cannot simply ignore American institutions and traditions.

Nevertheless, in the worst case scenario, Ukraine will no longer receive American aid. The United States’ commitment to assisting NATO countries could be called into question. If either Trump wins or his defeat triggers domestic political turmoil, Europe will have to change quickly and fundamentally.

A European rump NATO without full participation of the USA would have to reposition itself. If NATO were to disappear completely, the EU would have to transform itself from a mere economic and political community into a security and defense alliance.

With the granting of EU candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia in 2022 and 2023, the EU and its 27 member states have become indirectly involved in three European territorial conflicts with Russia. Since the beginning of 2024, more and more European states have been concluding security agreements with Ukraine. The EU has just signed a security and defense partnership with the Republic of Moldova.

The EU’s now strong involvement in the post-Soviet space would mean that geopolitical risks would increase rapidly if the US were to withdraw from Europe. It would be a moment of truth for the continent and a test for the much-vaunted European idea. Over the past 70 years, the question has always been in the air as to whether European integration and security only exist because and as long as Washington holds its protective hand over Europe.

If the American protective umbrella disappears, the vision of a self-sustaining, united and solidarity-based Europe could prove to be a fiction. European states would have to practice a completely new form of security, foreign and defense policy cooperation among themselves.

After 70 years, the question of whether Moscow can assert its hegemonic claims in Europe would no longer be primarily directed at Washington. The answer would depend on the extent to which the nations of Europe see themselves as a genuine community – with all the consequences that this entails.

Andreas Umland is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for East European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI).